差價合約是複雜的金融交易產品,可帶來由槓桿作用而導致迅速虧損的高風險。 大部分的零售投資者帳戶在跟交易差價合約時錄得資金虧損。您應當考慮您是否充分明白差價合約如何運作,以及您是否能承受您的資金損失的高風險。

英鎊/美元聚焦美聯儲和英國通脹尋找方向

英鎊兌美元已從近期交易區間低點反彈,但可能因即將公佈的經濟數據而逆轉。

英鎊/美元日圖

gbpusd

英鎊兌美元匯率昨日突破1.22,但由於交易員仍對美聯儲的政策感到擔憂,該匯率隨後又逆轉了漲幅。

儘管最近發生了銀行業危機,交易員們仍在試圖確定美聯儲的行動。由於面臨更嚴重的銀行危機的風險,美聯儲可能會暫停加息,將2%的通脹目標放在次要位置。通過再次加息,美聯儲可能會引發進一步的恐慌和不確定性,導致市場進一步拋售脆弱的銀行板塊。

此前美聯儲主席鮑威爾告訴國會預計加息,交易員預計加息50個基點。那已經是在矽谷銀行崩潰之前,而該事件也是美聯儲的持續加息所導致。

SVB持有的債券虧損了18億美元,並試圖在金融市場融資。當這一舉措失敗後,銀行存款開始擠兌,並波及整個銀行業。

鮑威爾也受到了批評,參議員Elizabeth Warren表示,主席在監管和貨幣政策方面“失敗”。她還表示,鮑威爾不應該擔任目前的職位。

週三還將看到英國經濟的最新通脹報告,預計將下滑至9.9%。這一數字仍然居高不下,是發達經濟體中最糟糕的。

英國央行也將於本週四召開會議。市場普遍預計,他們將無視瑞信的危機,再次加息。由於通貨膨脹率仍接近兩位數,央行別無選擇。

美聯儲面臨越來越多的擔憂和銀行業問題

凱投宏觀經濟學家Andrew Hunter表示:“新的問題仍有可能出現,瑞信強調了危機蔓延的風險,因為擔憂的蔓延遠遠超出了小型銀行未變現虧損的問題。”

德意志銀行和野村證券預計,英國央行將加息25個基點,為連續第11次加息。

野村證券表示:“強勁的勞動力市場、近期潛在的核心通脹、上週的寬鬆預算、上次貨幣政策委員會會議以來一些更強勁的數據結果,以及4.25%相對於過去週期而言似乎不是一個特別高的利率終點,所有這些都表明有必要加息。”

德意志銀行補充稱:“隨著金融穩定風險日益明顯,貨幣政策委員會可能會謹慎對待進一步提高銀行利率的幅度。”

交易者有一個交易區間的低目標和高目標,根據加息的反應來進行交易。

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