差價合約是複雜的金融交易產品,可帶來由槓桿作用而導致迅速虧損的高風險。 大部分的零售投資者帳戶在跟交易差價合約時錄得資金虧損。您應當考慮您是否充分明白差價合約如何運作,以及您是否能承受您的資金損失的高風險。

瑞士信貸轉向國有化,美元/瑞郎隨之尋求方向

由於瑞士政府考慮將瑞士信貸國有化,美元/瑞郎正在尋求方向。此前,瑞士信貸未能被瑞士聯合銀行收購。

USDCHF – Daily Chart

美元/瑞郎日圖

美元兌瑞郎延續下行至2023年,但在2月和3月反彈。交易者現在應該尋找一個突破,從0.91向下或上行突破至0.94。

據彭博社報導,監管機構傾向於將瑞信完全或部分國有化——當局正在研究讓瑞信債券持有人承擔損失。

據BBG報導,“由於交易安排的複雜性和涉及的時間框架短,如果瑞銀集團的收購失敗,該國正在考慮要么完全接管該銀行,要么持有大量股權。”

週日的局勢“非常不穩定”。隨著當局尋求在亞洲市場開盤時敲定亞投行的解決方案,情況隨時都可能發生變化。

據英國《金融時報》報導,在距離期貨市場開盤僅剩幾個小時之際,瑞銀(UBS)提出以高達10億美元的價格收購瑞信。瑞士當局還計劃修改該國法律,繞過股東對交易的投票,他們急於推動該交易獲得通過,並試圖恢復人們對銀行體系的信任。

美元/瑞郎預測

如果市場將收購視為銀行業動蕩的結束,美元兌瑞郎可能會回升。由於該國將被瑞士信貸的債務套牢,它也可能下跌。

瑞士央行上週表示:“瑞信符合對具有系統重要性的銀行施加的資本和流動性要求。”

上週日有報導稱,收購要約以瑞銀股票的形式支付,價格為每股0.25瑞士法郎。這一價格遠低於瑞信上週五1.86瑞士法郎的收盤價,而且該交易對該公司股權的估值僅為10億美元。

瑞士信貸的最大股東是沙特國家銀行,持有該公司近10%的股份,當時耗資15億美元。卡塔爾投資局(6.80%)和貝萊德公司(4%)緊隨其後。

收購該銀行的交易將抹去這些股東的投資。去年,針對有關該行財務健康狀況的傳言,客戶開始從該行撤資數十億美元,導致該行出現自2008年銀行業危機以來最嚴重的全年虧損。

上個月,該公司的財富管理部門虧損超過1000億歐元,情況進一步惡化。在SVB恐慌期間,該銀行每天損失的存款高達100億美元。

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