差價合約是複雜的金融交易產品,可帶來由槓桿作用而導致迅速虧損的高風險。 大部分的零售投資者帳戶在跟交易差價合約時錄得資金虧損。您應當考慮您是否充分明白差價合約如何運作,以及您是否能承受您的資金損失的高風險。

歐元可能是下一個貨幣戰爭的受益者

如果日本央行標誌著貨幣戰爭的開始,那麼歐元/瑞郎就值得關注。

6月下旬,該貨幣對跌破平價,此後暴跌至0.9640。

歐元/瑞郎日圖

eurchf chart 23 september 2022

瑞士央行此前曾干預市場,取消了與歐元的掛鉤。這導致該貨幣對跌破1.00水平。然而,歐元兌美元目前的交易水平低於當年,而希望避免歐元進一步下跌的可能正是歐洲央行。

瑞士國家銀行剛剛將利率提高到0.75%,結束了負利率時代。市場預期會有1%的加息,瑞士法郎因此遭到拋售。

瑞士的年通貨膨脹率僅為3.5%,遠低於歐元區的9%,而英國的年通貨膨脹率接近10%。作為央行降低猖獗通貨膨脹計劃的一部分,他們需要強勢的貨幣來降低能源等進口商品的成本。

歐元相對於瑞士法郎仍有優勢,因為瑞士央行的舉措仍沒有預期的那麼激進。歐元兌歐元匯率下跌超過2%。這可能預示著歐元可能會在當前水平觸底,暫時得到緩解。

下一個目標可能是歐元/瑞郎回到1.00水平,但這需要歐洲央行採取進一步行動。歐洲央行的一些官員已要求進一步加息,但他們仍落後於美國等。

如果歐元進一步下跌,那麼歐洲央行可能會開始評估干預措施,起初只是口頭上的。這可能會加劇歐元的反彈。下周德國數據將主導市場,IFO商業景氣指數、消費者信心指數和通脹數據將在陸續發布。

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