差價合約是複雜的金融交易產品,可帶來由槓桿作用而導致迅速虧損的高風險。 大部分的零售投資者帳戶在跟交易差價合約時錄得資金虧損。您應當考慮您是否充分明白差價合約如何運作,以及您是否能承受您的資金損失的高風險。

歐元前景仍受多重因素制約,歐央行加息憧憬未能對沖風險

9月8日,市場關注的歐央行利率決議來襲,目前對於加息幅度的預測集中在50個基點或75個基點。被天然氣等能源供應危機籠罩之下的歐洲,由於受經濟環境惡化和通脹飆升雙重風險的壓力,市場對加息75個基點的看法更加趨於保守。

利率掉期交易數據顯示,歐央行本週加息0.75厘的概率降至約65%,較上週的80%概率降低。而加息之後,歐洲經濟數據是否會受到衝擊也是市場關注的焦點問題。

歐元區8月CPI比去年同期躍升9.1%,繼續刷新歷史新高,隨著秋冬季節即將來臨,能源價格面臨繼續上漲,歐洲的通脹率是否已經見頂還不能確定。歐央行多名官員早前表達了鷹派立場,認為至少加息50個基點,以控制通脹,市場也在猜測歐央行是否會效仿美聯儲早前激進加息75個基點,這是今天的利率決議的一大看點。

另一大看點是歐央行未來加息步伐的指引,市場期望從此次利率決議上捕捉到歐央行是否會頂著經濟下滑的風險堅持繼續加息來對抗通脹,如果他們未來放緩加息步伐,歐元的疲軟一方面會令進口商品繼續上升,這意味著以美元計價的天然氣價格或將繼續飆升,歐洲的通脹水平可能還將進一步惡化。

深陷俄烏衝突風暴中心的歐洲,相對美國來說經濟衰退的風險更大,尤其是德國這樣高度依賴俄羅斯能源進口的國家,經濟形勢已經非常不可觀。根據國際專業機構估計,歐元區在半年內陷入衰退的概率五成,遠高於美國的三成。這也成為了歐央行加息的最大束縛,也制約著歐元的走向。

這也造成了同樣處於加息的憧憬之中的歐元卻並沒有像美元一樣走強,而是在本週一延續頹勢,一度跌至20年來新低,甚至跌破了與美元之間的平價線,位於0.99美元下方,隨後又小幅回升,本週三公佈的歐元區第二季度GDP年率終值為4.1%,略高於市場預期,這利好歐元逼近美元平價的水平。eurusd 8 September chart

可以看出,歐洲經濟下行風險、能源供應危機風險、通脹對經濟的衝擊對歐元匯率帶來了巨大的負面影響。如果接下來的經濟表現不理想,歐元有再度下試低點的可能性,投資者需要密切留意。能源危機仍是當前製約歐洲經濟及歐元表現的核心因素,如果能源危機後續不能被妥善解決或者更加升級,歐元徘徊在與美元平價水平附近或更低水平的時間可能會持續較長。

此外,由於歐元在很大程度上受到美元匯率波動的影響,9月8日鮑威爾將在傑克遜霍爾年度經濟研討會之後首度發表公開講話,市場關注他是否會談及本月美聯儲的加息幅度以及對於之後的加息態度。如果此次歐央行的加息幅度比美聯儲更大,看似可能會短暫提振歐元,但是如果幅度過於激進實則會讓市場對歐洲經濟的擔憂加劇,恐怕也會不利於加息之後的歐元表現。

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