日本央行暗示可能加息,日元上涨

受日本央行政策制定者同意进一步加息以应对通胀压力的推动,日元兑美元汇率周四升至八周高点。与此形成鲜明对比的是,在英国央行按预期下调利率之后,英镑出现了低迷。不过,英国央行警告称,通胀上升和经济增长乏力,加上两名官员推动更大幅度降息,英镑因此下跌0.8%,至1.24065美元。英镑兑美元周三曾触及1.2437美元的一个月高位。

在英国央行采取这一举措后,金融市场目前预计年底前还将进一步放松货币政策约67个基点。分析人士表示,英国以服务业为主导的经济可能会缓和英镑的下跌,因为英国面临的全球贸易紧张局势的风险较小。与此同时,美元指数小幅上涨至107.92,徘徊在上周初以来的最低水平附近,原因是人们对贸易战担忧缓解的乐观情绪有所增强。该指数已从1月13日创下的两年高点110.17下跌2%,部分原因是美国暂停对墨西哥和加拿大征收关税,同时对中国商品征收10%的新关税。投资者正在等待周五的美国就业报告,以寻找未来货币政策的线索。

在日本,美元兑日元曾录得151.81,为去年12月12日以来的最低水平,此前日本央行理事田村直树主张逐步加息以应对通胀,汇价也跟随回吐。田村的言论支撑了日本央行9月前加息25个基点的预期。相比之下,市场完全消化了美联储7月降息25个基点的预期,预计到12月将累计降息46个基点。

在其他市场,离岸人民币小幅下跌,加元曾触及12月17日高位,之后美元兑加元稳定在1.43405。欧元兑美元汇率下跌0.36%,至1.0363,反映出更广泛的外汇市场调整。

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