美元兑日元守在156.50附近,美联储自相矛盾的表态给前景蒙阴

美元兑日元周一在亚洲早盘小幅走高,在156.50附近盘整,因市场权衡了美联储官员发出的好坏参半的信号,以及日本持续的干预威胁。

USDJPY_2025-11-24_10-24-54 Chart

美元/日元图表

美联储官员表态谨慎,提振美元

美元从美联储政策制定者的谨慎评论中获得了基本支撑,缓和了市场对即将降息的预期。最新的美联储会议纪要显示,人们一致反对12月降息,这一立场在最近的讲话中得到了呼应。

波士顿联邦储备银行行长苏珊·柯林斯表示,目前的货币政策定位良好。

达拉斯联邦储备银行行长洛根强调,有必要“一段时间”保持利率稳定,以充分评估其对经济的影响。

不过,纽约联邦储备银行总裁威廉姆斯反驳了这种鹰派倾向,他坚持认为,美联储仍可能在“短期内”降息,而不会危及其对抗通胀的努力。这种分歧造成了不确定性,让交易员等待进一步的数据来寻找方向,周二的生产者价格指数报告是下一个关键考验。

日本的干预威胁限制了美元兑日元的上行空间

由于日本当局不断升级的口头干预,该货币对的潜在涨幅有限。日本财务大臣片山彻明确表示,干预仍是对抗日元“过度波动和投机行为”的可行工具。

与此同时,围绕日本央行下一步政策举措的猜测继续升温。虽然日本央行自今年1月以来一直将利率维持在0.5%,但行长植田和男强烈暗示,最早可能在12月或明年1月加息。最近的一项路透调查显示,多数经济学家目前预计12月将加息至0.75%,这与市场对未来几个月加息的预期一致。

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