澳元兑日元周二将公布就业和零售销售数据

周二上午,澳元兑日元将备受关注,就业和零售销售数据即将公布。

AUDJPY - Daily Chart

澳元兑日元 – 日线图

自 9 月以来,澳元兑日元汇率曾两次在 100 水平遇到阻力,目前交易价格为 99.31。这将是一个重要的水平,进一步走弱可能会重新测试 94 的支撑位

数据于香港时间上午 8:30 开始,首先是日本失业数据。强劲的就业和工资上涨将给通胀带来压力,并增加日本进一步加息的可能性。

随后,香港时间上午 9:30 和 10 点将公布澳大利亚零售销售和通胀数据。由于澳大利亚通胀依然顽固,澳大利亚储备银行降息速度较慢。周二的数据将结束本周该货币对的高水平数据,并可能引导价格进入周末。

在 NAB 改变其预测后,澳大利亚四大银行现在都预计 2 月中旬前降息。 NAB 原本预计 2025 年 5 月降息,但现在已提前三个月。

最近会议的会议记录显示,日本央行董事会成员在自己的货币政策上存在分歧。

日本央行在为期两天的会议上将短期利率维持在 0.25% 不变,但指出国内条件正在改善,这将允许解除多年的非常规货币刺激措施。

日本央行表示:“尽管受到价格上涨和其他因素的影响,但私人消费一直呈温和增长趋势。”

日本央行行长上田和夫表示:“日本的实际利率仍然非常低。如果我们的经济和价格预测实现,我们将提高利率并相应调整货币支持程度。”

石破茂周五赢得日本首相选举,投资者担心可能会进一步加息和干预外汇市场。石破茂表示,他将整顿自民党 (LDP),振兴经济并应对安全威胁。

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