在数据公布前,美元兑人民币反弹遇到阻力

在本周数据公布之前,美元兑人民币汇率面临阻力。

USDCNY – Daily Chart

美元兑人民币——日图

在中国经济刺激措施出台后,美元兑人民币汇率反弹,并向7.087阻力位推进。这将是未来的一个重要阶段。

中国贸易数据将于香港时间周一中午12点左右发布,如果中国的进出口数据有利,可能会影响人民币汇率。

中国将“大幅增加”政府债券发行,以向低收入公民提供补贴,提振房地产市场,并补充国有银行的资本,以推动企业恢复增长。

财政部长在周六的新闻发布会上表示,2024年将有更多的“反周期措施”,但他没有提供计划中的财政刺激规模的很多细节。

他表示:“中国发行债券仍有相对较大的空间。”

近几个月的一系列经济数据都低于预期,这加剧了经济学家和投资者的担忧,他们担心中国政府今年约5%的增长目标面临风险,可能会出现更长期的结构性放缓。

财政刺激措施是中国投资者关注的焦点,市场对中共中央政治局的下一步举措有很多猜测。经济逆风愈演愈烈也是一种紧迫感,近期支持市场的承诺很可能会得到一种看起来正确的愿望。

中国股市达到两年高点,在9月会议后的几天内飙升25%,但由于政府预期支出计划没有更多细节,市场紧张情绪开始回落。

路透社上个月报道,中国计划今年发行价值约2万亿元人民币(2844.3亿美元)的特别主权债券,作为新的财政刺激措施的一部分。刺激水平可能有助于美元兑人民币汇率回升。

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