受消费者数据和英国央行讲话影响,英镑兑澳元可能转为活跃

周二,随着澳大利亚消费者数据和英国央行政策制定者的讲话,英镑兑澳元汇率可能会有所变动。

GBPAUD – Daily Chart

英镑兑澳元——日图

英镑兑澳元已跌破一些关键阻力位转为支撑位,并有可能在未来几周内跌向1.93区域。如果英国财政状况进一步恶化,进一步加税,那么2.0的水平有可能成为中期高点。

周二将于香港时间上午8:30公布的澳大利亚西太平洋银行1月份消费者数据。该指标在12月份下滑了0.2%,经济学家希望有所改善。澳大利亚家庭连续第七个季度陷入衰退,经济学家将其归咎于工资增长放缓。

下午4:30,英国央行官员布雷登将发表讲话。这位英国央行的政策制定者对上周英国国债收益率的飙升不以为然,并表示她愿意继续进一步降息。

尽管最近有降息动作,但投资者在周一降低了对央行降息步伐的押注。利率期货目前显示,英国央行在2025年12月前降息约43个基点,预计将有两次降息25个基点。

当唐纳德·特朗普成为总统并开始他的以美国为中心的政策时,投资者正准备迎接美国更多的通胀压力。在最近的恐慌之后,市场也可能把提高利率视为吸引债券投资的答案。

英国首相表示,他对财政大臣“充满信心”,称她做得“非常出色”,但拒绝透露她是否会在他的整个任期内留任。

英镑跌至14个月新低,英国国债收益率升至4.9%。30年期国债达到27年来的最高水平。

投资者应在未来几天和几周密切关注英镑,因为任何政策变化都可能导致大幅波动。

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