美元指数坚守99上方,就业数据强劲,伊朗谈判前景不明朗,交易员保持谨慎

据市场报道,周四,受美国强劲的劳动力数据以及华盛顿和德黑兰之间谈判的不确定性支撑,美元指数维持在99上方。与此同时,投资者正在权衡,强劲的经济数据是否会使美联储在降息方面保持谨慎,而地缘政治风险继续支撑美元作为避险货币的地位。

DXY_2026-05-22_11-59-02

美元指数衡量美元兑六种主要货币的汇率,在强劲的美国经济数据和高企的美国国债收益率推动下,该指数已接近五周高位。交易员一直在关注该指数能否维持在99上方,这一关口在近期的交易中备受关注。

近期公布的美国就业数据显示,4月份劳动力市场依然稳健,非农就业人数增幅超出预期,失业率稳定在4.3%,这强化了市场对美联储可能维持利率不变的预期。尽管市场仍在讨论今年晚些时候的宽松政策步伐,但这一数据仍然支撑了美元。

与此同时,美伊外交方面的新闻也为美元提供了第二重支撑。一位伊朗官员表示,尽管双方分歧有所缩小,但尚未达成任何协议。而本月早些时候的报道则暗示,双方正在探讨一项框架,该框架可能以伊朗限制其核计划为条件,换取对伊朗的制裁放松。

更广泛的市场背景仍然对中东局势的发展高度敏感,该地区停火前景、制裁政策和能源供应路线的变化都可能迅速影响货币和大宗商品市场。美元持续走强可能会继续对其他主要货币构成压力,并可能使以美元计价的大宗商品(包括石油和黄金)的前景更加复杂。

交易员们现在将密切关注美国经济数据的进一步公布,以及来自华盛顿或德黑兰的任何新信号,以判断美元能否延续近期的涨势,或者在接近99时是否会出现获利回吐。

关于作者

 

Martin Lam 是 ATFX 亚太区首席分析师,在全球外汇及投资市场拥有逾 20 年的经验。他毕业于迪肯大学(Deakin University),主修金融与经济学,并曾在多家领先的外汇经纪公司担任高级管理职位。

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