美股未来一周有回调风险

标普500指数上周下跌,再次跌破6000点,暗示可能出现回调。

SP 500 – Weekly Chart

标准普尔500-周图

标准普尔500指数收于5,827点,有可能进一步回调至5,000点。

美国12月就业报告显示,失业率下降至4.1%,同时月度就业人数增加25.6万人,并加速增长。这终结了市场对美联储1月份降息的希望。在就业报告发布之前,下次会议降息的可能性已经很低。

由于劳动力市场稳固,消费者通胀率同比上升,美联储下次降息可能要到2025年5月才会发生。距离特朗普的总统就职典礼只有一周的时间,市场参与者可能也在考虑将一些利润从谈判桌上拿掉。即将上任的总统威胁要用关税和其他措施动摇经济现状。

加州的野火仍在继续蔓延,据AccuWeather初步估计,损失和经济损失在1350亿至1500亿美元之间。这将是美国历史上损失最大的自然灾害。

AccuWeather分析师表示:“从这个角度来看,这场野火灾难造成的总损失和经济损失可能达到加利福尼亚州年度GDP的近4%。”

他写道:“在1日图表低点(92000 – 88000)附近,随着需求增加,投标流动性得到了相当大的缓冲。”如果比特币进入这些水平,将突破长期支撑线,并在特朗普就职典礼之前使比特币处于压力之下。

美国股市继续攀升,但止步于6000点的水平。上一次调整是在2024年7月,市场损失了10%。

本周将开启即将到来的第四季度财报季,从周三开始,各大银行将成为关注焦点。摩根大通、美国银行、富国银行、花旗集团以及重要的芯片制造商台积电将公布业绩。

关键的经济数据将于周三公布,包括12月CPI报告。消费者通胀数据的公布可能会考验市场对利率水平的预期,如果该数据上调的话。股市的疲软与比特币测试关键支撑一致,这可能预示着本周将出现一些抛售。

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