欧洲股市受到关税拖累

欧洲股市遭遇8月以来最大跌幅,因交易员担心出口关税。

GER 30 – Daily Chart

GER30 -日线图

德国蓝筹股指数下跌至21703点,牛市开始崩溃。下一个支撑位在21,250点和20,500点。

欧洲银行股今年领涨,也是受冲击最严重的板块之一,下跌5.5%。在特朗普午夜后对汽车进口征收关税后,汽车制造商也受到了伤害,今年迄今的跌幅扩大至-7.2%。

法国和德国目前正在推动更积极的关税回应,这可能会加强欧盟的谈判立场。特朗普贸易战的大幅升级可能会抹去欧洲央行对今明两年欧元区扩张的很大一部分预测。

巴黎Carmignac的Kevin Thozet表示:“问题在于,这能多快转化为实实在在的经济数据。”

债券市场以及公用事业和房地产等避险资产上涨,因投资者降低风险,将资金转移至防御性股票。在这种不确定的时期,投资者现在关注的是收入,他们在等着看各国如何用自己的对策进行反击。

对关税的担忧动摇了今年提振欧洲股市的积极情绪,市场关注的焦点是德国政府支出增加和利率下降。今年第一季度,斯托克欧洲600指数比标准普尔500指数高出了创纪录的近15个百分点。

欧洲的经济形势并不足以支撑股市创下历史新高,而后期的多头正在为此付出代价。

萨夫拉-萨拉辛银行股票策略师沃尔夫•冯•罗特伯格表示:“这一声明几乎是市场最糟糕的情况。”

“互惠关税的规模及其即时性将给全球贸易带来巨大压力。全球经济放缓似乎几乎不可避免,美国也无法幸免。由于欧洲和全球股市的定价尚未考虑到这种情况,它们可能不得不进一步调整,以适应下行趋势。”

投资者持谨慎态度,因为制药、木材和半导体等行业仍有关税悬而未决。在形势明朗、投资者看到初步经济数据之前,我们可能仍会看到欧洲债市和防御型股票表现优于其他市场的趋势。

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