白银弱势反弹,有再次下跌的风险

过去两天,银价一直走高,但迄今为止反弹幅度不大。

XAGUSD – Daily Chart

现货白银-日线图

白银已经从28.67美元的水平反弹,但最初反弹为弱势,正朝着29.28美元靠近。要想重燃升势,必须升破30美元,但也有跌至28美元附近的下行趋势线的风险。

随着美元走强,白银和其他大宗商品连续四天大幅下跌。由于全球最大的黄金消费国中国出现需求疲软的迹象,贵金属价格今年有所上涨。

在其他地方,印度将黄金和白银的进口关税从15%降至6%,以支持珠宝制造业,提升了这个全球第二大黄金消费国的需求前景。美国7月份PMI数据将于周三公布,第二季度GDP数据将于周四公布,周五将公布最新的个人消费支出价格报告。

这两组数据都将成为美元的重要推动力,影响金属和其他大宗商品——中国经济增速低于预期,仅为4.7%,上周拖累了大宗商品市场。

地缘政治担忧也推动了对金属的避险买盘。然而,中东可能的停火损害了前景。唐纳德·特朗普还与乌克兰总统泽伦斯基就与俄罗斯的冲突带来和平进行了交谈。

本周的经济数据对金属来说至关重要。美国推迟降息将损害对加密货币或黄金等非收益资产的需求。这将决定银价能否守住6月份开始的交易区间低点。

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