受欧佩克产量猜测影响,油价反弹消退

在交易员猜测石油输出国组织(OPEC)增产后,油价周一的涨势消退。

USOIL – Daily Chart

美国原油期货 -每日图表

原油价格在测试76美元后下跌,目前正在考虑测试71.725美元的潜在支撑位。

在中东紧张局势加剧后,油价上周周一反弹。但这种力量并没有持续下去,石油又消失了。

另一个影响因素是对明年原油前景的负面看法,在全球供应飙升之际,高盛和摩根士丹利下调了价格预期。

这两家投行目前预计,2025年全球基准布伦特原油均价将低于每桶80美元,高盛预测下调至77美元,摩根士丹利预计期货价格在75美元至78美元之间。两家公司都预计原油市场将出现过剩,未来12个月油价将走低。

高盛分析师写道,石油输出国组织及其盟友(统称为欧佩克+)决定扭转自愿减产的局面,也可能“从战略上约束非欧佩克国家的供应”。

尽管人们对美联储将降息的信心日益增强,但投资者仍对原油前景持看跌态度。基金经理一直在抛售原油期货和期权,因空头回补的涨势失去动力,负面情绪卷土重来。

欧佩克将在未来两周召开会议,这将是推动油价上涨的关键因素。

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