新西兰经济衰退加深,纽元兑日元大跌

周四日本数据公布前,纽元兑日元汇率大幅下跌。

NZDJPY – Daily Chart

纽元兑日元-日图

纽元兑日元已经跌破88,支撑位在86以下。2024年的低点可能会受到低于这一水平的威胁。

香港时间上午5点45分,新西兰经济GDP增长数据显示,由于高利率,新西兰经济在第二和第三季度遭受了比预期更严重的衰退。新西兰统计局表示,截至9月份的三个月,GDP下降了1%。经济学家预计会收缩0.2%。第二季度,GDP从最初公布的-0.2%修正为-1.1%。最新数据公布后,日本央行将公布利率决定和货币政策声明。市场正在寻找日本央行何时加息的信号。

市场不排除日本央行降息0.25%的可能性,周三公布的出口数据再次提振了日本经济。11月份出口连续第二个月增长,突显出全球需求强劲,但这种强劲需求日后可能受到美国贸易保护主义政策的影响。

11月份出口总额同比增长3.8%,高于市场预期的2.8%和10月份的3.1%。11月份日本对最大贸易伙伴中国的出口较上年同期增长4.1%。对美国的出口下降了8%。11月份进口同比下降3.8%,而市场预期为增长1%。

路透社的一项调查显示,近四分之三的日本公司担心唐纳德·特朗普的下一任美国总统任期会对商业环境产生负面影响。日本央行行长植田和男曾表示,如果经济和物价走势与预期相符,央行将继续加息。然而,路透社消息人士称,由于海外风险,央行本周倾向于维持利率稳定。

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