美联储的量化紧缩是本周的一大主题

市场正在期待本周的关键事件,因为美联储考虑结束其量化紧缩(QT)的努力。

EURUSD – Daily Chart (1)

欧元兑美元-日线图

欧元兑美元已从近期低点小幅反弹,在关键支撑位1.15575之前,未来一周将非常重要。低于该水平,1.1400将是下一个目标。

市场预计美联储短期利率将下调25个基点,将宣布结束资产负债表缩减。美联储主席鲍威尔在10月14日的讲话中提到了美联储结束QT的计划。

美联储做出这一决定之际,美国政府仍处于停摆状态,一些政府工作人员被告知,停摆可能会持续到12月。目前,政府停摆导致每周GDP增长拖累约0.2%。毕马威表示,政府关门时间越长,亏损也往往越高。据说这些损失已经得到了弥补,但这次的损失比之前的许多次停工都要大。

分析人士预计,由于75万名政府工作人员在政府关门期间无薪工作,消费者支出将放缓。

除此之外,隔夜联邦基金市场的流动性正在枯竭,这损害了货币政策降息的能力。随着美国两起引人注目的银行破产事件以及一些人抛售地区性银行股,市场对银行的担忧卷土重来,银行一直在向美联储存入资金

欧洲央行也将于本周宣布最新的利率决定,但他们已发出立场,表示将按兵不动。

欧元兑美元的强势最近停滞不前,但交易员可以关注本周市场对美联储和贸易协议的反应。这可能决定未来几周外汇市场的走势。

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