欧元下跌,美元因伊朗局势乐观情绪而走强,拉加德缓和欧洲央行鹰派立场

周一,由于美伊紧张局势带来的风险情绪改善支撑了美元,欧元兑美元汇率下跌。与此同时,欧洲央行行长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德暗示,欧洲央行并不急于采取更激进的加息措施。

EURUSD_2026-06-23_10-51-17

此举延续了欧元近期面临的压力。交易员一直在权衡欧元与走强的美元以及大西洋两岸货币政策预期变化之间的关系。

拉加德表示,欧洲央行仍有能力应对伊朗冲击带来的经济影响,目前尚无证据表明通胀出现脱离锚定或出现需要采取更强硬政策应对措施的第二轮效应。

尽管欧元区面临能源价格不确定性、更广泛的中东风险以及脆弱的经济增长前景,但拉加德的言论抑制了市场对欧洲央行进一步收紧货币政策的预期。

近几周来,欧元已承压,市场正评估中东紧张局势的影响以及美国利率前景,而美元则因其避险属性以及市场预期美联储将采取更为鹰派的立场而获得支撑。

对市场而言,目前的关键问题是,地缘政治担忧的缓解能否维持对风险资产的需求,还是冲突事件的再次爆发以及央行信号的变化将继续支撑美元。

关于作者

 

Martin Lam 是 ATFX 亚太区首席分析师,在全球外汇及投资市场拥有逾 20 年的经验。他毕业于迪肯大学(Deakin University),主修金融与经济学,并曾在多家领先的外汇经纪公司担任高级管理职位。

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