欧元兑英镑汇率聚焦9月PMI数据影响

欧元兑英镑汇率将受周二欧洲和英国经济PMI数据影响。

EURGBP – Daily Chart

欧元兑英镑-日走势图

欧元兑英镑在0.8740有强劲阻力,这将是对反弹的重要考验。突破该价位可能助攻欧元近期涨势延续更长时间。

香港时间下午15:15将公布最新的法国9月制造业、服务业和综合指数初值。同样的数据将在15:30从德国经济发布,随后是16:00的欧洲数据,然后是16:30的英国数据。

市场预计德国制造业指数将从49.8升至50,而强劲的数据可能会提振欧元。欧洲服务业指数预计将保持在50.5不变,因此任何额外的数据也会对欧元造成影响。在最近的政治变化之后,法国最初的数字可能比平时更重要。

最后,预计英国制造业指数将为47,与上月相似。服务业指数预计也将从53.5降至52.7。如果数据疲软,英镑可能会进一步被抛售。

英国财政大臣已将该国关键的秋季预算推迟到11月底,并希望在预期的进一步增税痛苦之前看到经济出现一些积极变化。

本周晚些时候,德国Ifo经济研究所的数据也将进一步明确德国的经济活动。荷兰国际集团(ING)分析师指出,欧洲央行成员在行长发表经济前景良好的言论后相对保持沉默。他们预计到今年年底会听到一些温和的信号。

在英国利率方面,荷兰国际集团认为,英国央行行长贝利表示,应该继续降息,但速度将更加难以预测,因此11月有可能再次降息。分析师认为欧元/英镑在年底前有上行潜力,但11月预算将引发波动。

欧元仍处于主导地位,因为利率似乎保持不变,经济正在从早些时候的疲软中复苏。

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