欧元兑英镑汇率因经济数据重获关注

欧元兑英镑汇率将聚焦周二英国就业数据的影响,随后是德国和欧洲PMI数据。

EURGBP – 4H Chart

欧元兑英镑- 4H图表

欧元兑英镑已从支撑位0.8721反弹,并回到支撑位0.8756上方。现在,这是股市能否持续上涨的关键。

在香港时间下午2点发布就业数据之前,英国就业市场再次成为焦点,分析师预计上一季度将减少2.2万个就业岗位。失业率预计将从5.0%升至5.1%。

英国国家统计局的数据显示,这是自2020年12月至2021年2月以来的最高,该机构提高了对12月降息的预期。毕马威英国经济学家耶尔•塞尔芬(Yael Selfin)表示,公共部门薪酬增长正“接近峰值”,由于政府预算压力,预计去年以来的大幅加薪不会持续下去。

香港时间下午3时30分,继续提供HCOB服务及德国制造业数据。经济学家预计制造业指数将从48.2升至48.5。但是,服务业的指数将从53.1下降到52.8。

30分钟后,欧元区公布了同样的数据,制造业指数预计将从49.6升至49.9。服务业指数预计将从53.6上升至53.9。

分析师预计欧洲央行不会在12月19日的会议上下调2%的基准利率,也不会在2027年之前下调。明年降息的几率已经从30%上升到60%,增加了近期对欧元的支持。

相比之下,英国央行打算将基准利率从4%降至3.75%,但英国政策制定者之间的分歧比美国更为明显。美国银行预计,该行投票委员会的投票结果将是5:4。在过去7个月中,有6个月的经济收缩增加了货币政策放松的可能性。就鹰派观点而言,该国是七国集团中通货膨胀率最高的国家。

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