欧元兑澳元汇率聚焦通胀和就业数据的指引

澳大利亚经济的就业数据和欧洲的通胀数据可能会在周四推动欧元兑澳元汇率。

EURAUD - Daily Chart

欧元兑澳元-日线图

欧元兑澳元近期处于1.63附近的阻力位,正在寻找下一路径的催化剂。进一步走强的支撑位在1.60-1.61505,更低目标位在1.5850。

澳大利亚就业数据将于香港时间周四上午8点30分发布,欧洲CPI指数将于香港时间下午5点发布。

该行分析师预计,周二晚些时候公布的加拿大CPI将同比增长1.8%。该数据将于香港时间晚上8点30分发布,但交易员可以在香港时间下午2点看到英国的就业率。

德意志银行首席经济学家菲尔•奥多诺霍上月表示,如果雇主不囤积劳动力,澳大利亚的失业率会高得多。

他表示:“澳大利亚的失业率低于应有水平,因为对劳动力需求下降的大部分调整是通过工作时间进行的,而不是通过就业进行的。”

“我们估计,如果就业增长与工作时间的放缓相匹配,失业率将接近5.25%。”

经济学家预计,澳大利亚统计局周四将公布月度数据,届时失业率将上升。尽管新增了1.5万个就业岗位,但9月份的失业率预计将达到4.3%。

预计欧洲的CPI将会上涨,投资者将会对英国的数据下降到三个月以来的最低点1.7%感到振奋。这将引发要求再次降息的呼声,在法国通胀本周下降后,交易员应留意欧洲数据的类似反应。欧元的涨势可能因低通胀数据而受挫。

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由于鲍威尔中性基调削弱美元,欧元兑美元反弹

欧元兑美元周二攀升至1.16上方,受助于美联储主席鲍威尔的谨慎政策立场,以及法国政治紧张局势暂时缓和,此前法国政府暂停了备受争议的养老金改革。 鲍威尔在一个经济论坛上发表讲话,重申了“逐次会议”的利率决策方式,并表示劳动力市场的风险现在比通胀担忧更重要。虽然他指出,经济仍比预期强劲,但他承认就业方面的脆弱性日益增加,这增强了人们对进一步放松货币政策的预期。

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