Jobs data from the Australian economy and inflation data from Europe can drive the EUR v AUD exchange rate on Thursday.
EURAUD – Daily Chart
The price of EURAUD at recent resistance around the 1.63 level and is seeking a catalyst for the next path. Support for further Aussie strength comes in at 1.60-1.61505 and the larger target is 1.5850.
Australian jobs data will be released on Thursday morning at 8:30 am HKT, with the release of European CPI inflation following at 5pm HKT.
The bank’s analysts expect to see Canadian CPI at 1.8% year-on-year when it is released later on Tuesday. That data is released at 8:30 pm HKT, but traders can catch the UK employment rate at 2pm HKT.
Deutsche Bank chief economist Phil O’donoghue said last month that Australia’s unemployment rate would be much higher if employers were not hoarding labour.
“Australia’s unemployment rate is lower than it should be because most of the adjustment to lower labour demand has occurred through hours worked, rather than through employment”, he said.
“We estimate that the unemployment rate would be closer to 5.25% if employment growth had matched the slowdown in hours worked”.
Economists are expecting higher unemployment on Thursday when the Australian Bureau of Statistics releases its monthly figures. Joblessness is expected to have hit 4.3% in September despite an additional 15,000 jobs being created.
European CPI inflation is expected later and investors will take heart that the UK number fell to a three-month low of 1.7%. That will create calls for another rate cut and traders should look for a similar take from the European number after French inflation fell this week. The euro’s rally could falter on a low inflation number.
