原油价格继续维持80美元关口上方

原油价格突破80美元大关,试图延续最近的上涨动能。

US OIL - Daily Chart

美国原油-日图

油价在81.26美元的水平上交易,而80.58美元是关键的,油价将需要在这里找到持续的支撑,才可能回落至84.40美元的水平。

油价周二走高,此前纽约联邦储备银行一位政策制定者对未来降息路径发表了积极评论。分析师预计,美国原油库存数据将较低。

基准的西德州中质油和布兰特原油期货周一上涨约2%,收在4月以来的最高水准。纽约联邦储备银行行长约翰威廉斯表示,利率将逐步下降,这推动了价格上涨。

“我认为事情正朝着正确的方向发展,”当被问及根据目前的市场状况,美联储是否会在9月降息时,他表示。他也表示,降息将取决于未来的数据。不过,波士顿联邦储备银行总裁威廉斯和里士满联邦储备银行总裁巴尔金的言论则更为谨慎。

在石油供应方面,本周市场将密切关注美国的库存数据,因为这些数据将继续评估夏季驾驶季节的需求是否在增加。

根据路透社调查,上周美国原油库存预计减少230万桶。

同时,一些分析师仍看好欧佩克+集团最近延长减产的影响。

Rystad Energy副总裁Patricio Valdivieso表示:“OPEC+提供的最新指引,以及他们不变的225万桶/天的需求增长前景,表明2024年石油供应增长停滞,2025年产量明显存在下行风险。”

他补充称:“在全球石油供应增长似乎大幅减少的情况下,很难保持完全看空。”

在其他新闻方面,据俄罗斯官员称,乌克兰无人机袭击导致俄罗斯南部亚速港的一个石油码头发生大火。亚速港有两个油品码头,从1月到5月处理约22万吨用于出口的燃料。对俄罗斯基础设施的持续攻击威胁到全球实体供应,并推高了原油期货的风险溢价。

官方数据显示,中国5月炼油厂产量较去年同期下降1.8%,原因是炼油厂承诺按计画进行维修。原油价格上涨也对炼油利润率造成压力,降低了炼油商的利润。

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