在全球股市下跌之际,中国股市测试关键水平

中国蓝筹股指数正在关键水平寻求支撑,以避免进一步下跌。

CH 50 – Daily Chart

CH50日线图

中国50指数目前位于11517点,这一水平曾在8月初引发反弹。买家需要出现进行支撑,否则更大的低迷可能会使价格跌至11300至10800。

随着外资在中国的枯竭,中国股市一直在下跌。股票投资、私人股本和外国直接投资都有所放缓。

中国证券交易所已停止对外公布海外资金流动的每日数据,据称中国将出现2016年以来首次年度资金流出股市。在今年年初政府刺激计划再度抬头之后,投资者又开始撤出。

随着地缘政治紧张局势加剧以及北京方面收紧商业监管,Blackstone和KKR等全球最大的私人股本公司纷纷叫停交易,交易撮合也在逐渐枯竭。彭博社去年表示,过去20年在中国收购了超过1.5万亿美元资产的私募股权公司,现在正努力出售这些投资。

在最近的一轮反弹之后,中国最近也对政府债券市场进行了投资。中国央行出售长期债券,买入短期证券,8月份净买入人民币1,000亿元(合140亿美元)。

这些交易可能有助于减缓激进的债券走势。由于投资者押注货币政策将进一步放松,债券收益率已跌至纪录低点。

Brown Brothers Harriman驻纽约的Win Thin表示:“这更多是关于管理金融稳定风险,而不是经济。”“如果他们想刺激经济,他们就会压低收益率曲线的两端。相反,他们似乎担心的是对债券的大量单向押注。

TS Lombard的罗Rory Green表示,中国央行面临一场硬仗。

王志浩表示:“中国央行正试图通过推动经济增长来蒙混过关,同时也在实现人民币升值和提高长期债券收益率的政治目标。”“可以说,这是在对抗经济引力,流入固定收益的资金不太可能减少。”

他补充称:“鉴于流入市场的宏观疲弱,现在似乎是买入收益率上升债券的好时机。”

西方股市一直能够支撑全球市场,但随着投资者开始怀疑人工智能驱动的反弹,裂缝正在出现。

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