中美关税可能促使亚洲股市震荡

美国股市周五下跌了4%,但盘后市场也出现了类似的下跌。在与美国的贸易紧张局势恶化后,中国股市周一可能引领亚洲股市走低。

CHINA 50 – Daily Chart (1)

中国50日线图

上周五收盘时,中国50指数遭遇抛售,如果我们预计跌幅为-8%,可以看到,这将使该指数回到顽固的4月至8月水平。如果周一全球市场继续抛售,这可能被视为最好的等待地点。

在特朗普总统宣布对中国进口商品征收100%关税后,美国市场一片混乱。中国在周末进行了回击,称此举显示了“双重标准”。

特朗普还宣布从11月1日起对“所有关键软件”进行控制。此前,中国对美国船舶征收了新的港口费,并对芯片制造商高通进行了反垄断调查。还引入了稀土保护措施。

商务部表示:“长期以来,美国过度延伸国家安全概念,滥用出口管制,对中国采取歧视性行动,对半导体设备和芯片等多种产品实施单边长臂管辖措施。”

周五的市场抛售对股市来说是一记打击,此前股市忽视了美国政府关门的影响。预计美国政府关门将持续32天。

美国市场突然忘记了对利率的痴迷,周三才会公布CPI通胀数据。

中国股市上周刚刚庆祝了10年来的高点,但由于严厉的新关税,周一可能会下跌。最近的事件也是世界两大经济体之间达成任何协议的一次挫折。

随着市场吸收不断变化的贸易环境,亚洲市场的开放可能会出现波动。

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