As Q1 2025 begins, the global economy faces challenges from Trump’s return, central bank policies, and geopolitical shifts. Following a volatile 2024, Trump’s pro-business policies may drive growth in energy, finance, and technology, but tariffs and deregulation could disrupt supply chains and raise prices. Inflation will influence Federal Reserve rate decisions, increasing volatility. Martin Lam, ATFX’s Chief Analyst for Asia Pacific, advises investors to diversify and stay adaptable.
Mohammad Shanti, ATFX Head of Market Research & Analysis, notes the risk of inflation and trade disruptions, even as the U.S. dollar remains strong driven by economic growth and Trump’s agenda.
In the Eurozone, weak growth and uncertainty over U.S. tariffs complicate the outlook. Dr. Mohamed Nabawy, ATFX MENA Market Analyst, highlights that the European Central Bank may cut rates, while political instability in Germany and France adds to the uncertainty.
Nick Twidale, ATFX’s Chief Market Analyst (Australia), observes that while the Reserve Bank of Australia is maintaining steady interest rates, inflation remains a persistent concern. The Australian dollar has experienced significant declines, driven by a strong U.S. dollar and global economic challenges, particularly those stemming from China.
The UK economy is grappling with political instability, unemployment, and a weakened housing market. However, Gonzalo Canete, ATFX Global Chief Market Strategist, believes fiscal policies from the new Labour government could support growth, with the GBP/USD potentially reaching 1.40 by 2025, depending on U.K. economic data and U.S. trade policies. Meanwhile, Japan’s economy faces contraction, even with rate hikes, and the EUR/JPY may drop to 147 due to political instability in Europe.
Jessica Lin, ATFX’s Global Market Analyst (Asia Pacific), believes Trump’s policies could fuel inflation, benefiting gold as a hedge. Gold is expected to thrive in 2025, driven by central bank purchases, U.S. rate cuts, and geopolitical risks.
The oil market may face oversupply in 2025, with non-OPEC+ production increases. Gab Santos, ATFX Market Strategist (Philippines), emphasizes risk management in this volatile environment.
Gabi Dahduh, ATFX Senior Market Analyst (MENA), notes Bitcoin’s fluctuations and technological advancements like Ethereum’s shift to Proof of Stake, offering both risk and opportunity. Diversification and staying informed on regulatory changes will be key, as cryptocurrency will remain volatile, influenced by inflation, interest rates, and geopolitical instability.
Jason Tee, ATFX (Asia Pacific) Global Market Strategist, advised that traders must adopt a resilient mindset and strong risk management strategies. Continuous learning and adaptability will help refine strategies in this dynamic market.
In conclusion, a proactive, adaptable investment strategy is essential for navigating 2025’s uncertainty. For more insights, download our Trader Magazine.
