The benchmark US 10-year treasury bond yield has found resistance here, and the recent market rally will focus on Friday’s NFP Non-Farm payrolls data.
US 10Y – Daily Chart
The US 10-year yield has found some resistance at the 4.353% level, which was resistance in February and December. This level will be essential for the financial markets.
Investors hoped for weaker payroll data on Friday to see faster rate cuts from the US central bank. However, separate data on Wednesday has hurt that outlook.
Private payrolls data rose by 184,000 jobs last month, the most since last July, after moving higher by an upwardly revised 155,000 in February, the ADP Employment report said.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a much lower 148,000 last month than the previously reported 140,000 in February. Friday’s NFP number is expected to arrive at 200k, compared to 275k in February.
The market rally has significantly hinged on the Federal Reserve’s plan to cut its key interest rates. However, gold and Bitcoin are used to hedge inflation or government policy. Ark Invest’s Cathie Wood said:
“There’s something else going on around the world. There are currency devaluations taking place that people are not talking about.”
She talked about the Nigerian naira and Egyptian pound, which have lost around half their value against the US dollar in recent months.
“I think this is an insurance policy against rogue regimes or against just horrible fiscal and monetary policies,” Wood added.
The US 10-year will remain the benchmark haven asset for considerable money. However, its yield will be tested in the coming weeks as the Fed clarifies its path, starting with Friday’s payroll number.
