Oil Climbs as Middle East Tensions Disrupt Supply Recovery Hopes

Oil Movement Overview

Oil prices rose early Wednesday, with West Texas Intermediate crude futures up 0.59% to $89.97 a barrel as of 07:38 UTC+8 on 7 October 2026, extending gains from Tuesday, when Brent oil futures settled up 0.8% at $101.08 a barrel. The move came as reports of increased attacks in the Strait of Hormuz fueled fresh concerns over Middle East supply disruptions, while industry data pointed to a draw in US inventories.

WTI Crude Oil

 

Brent Crude Oil 

Key Driver Behind The Move

Reports of intensifying attacks in the Strait of Hormuz have fueled fresh concerns over Middle East supply disruptions, coming just as Gulf producers had brought shipments from the region back toward prewar levels. The UK Maritime Trade Operations reported seven strikes on vessels around the waterway since late September, with the most recent coming as recently as Sunday. Shipping through Hormuz remains a flashpoint, with the route still subject to warnings against vessels using a US-backed passage through the strait.

Market Data And Reaction

US oil inventories fell 2.09 million barrels in the week to 2 October 2026, according to data from the American Petroleum Institute, released late Tuesday. The draw follows three straight weeks of outsized builds and comes as American producers brace for weather-related disruptions in the Gulf of Mexico. Official US inventory data, due later Wednesday, typically mirrors the API’s trend.

Broader Market Implications

The conflict has widened beyond the strait itself. The Saudi-backed Yemeni government was reported to have retaken several key points along the Red Sea from the Iran-backed Houthis this week, a move that could eventually help increase crude flows through the Bab el-Mandeb strait. In response, the Houthis struck targets inside Saudi Arabia, including an Aramco refinery in Riyadh. Reports of improving Middle East supply, alongside planned emergency releases by the Group of Seven, have limited the scale of oil’s gains despite the escalating disruptions.

What Oil Traders Should Watch

  • Official US crude inventory data, due later Wednesday
  • Any further strikes on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz or on Saudi infrastructure
  • Developments in the Yemen conflict and their effect on Bab el-Mandeb flows
  • Scale and timing of the G7’s planned emergency supply releases

About the author

 

Martin Lam is ATFX Chief Analyst for Asia Pacific, with over 20 years of experience in global forex and investment markets. He holds a degree in Finance and Economics from Deakin University and has held senior roles at leading FX brokerage firms.

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