EURCAD Could Head Lower with German and Canadian Data

EURCAD has data released on Thursday that could drive the exchange rate

EURCAD – Daily Chart

EURCAD – Daily Chart

The recent trend has been downward in the EURCAD, which could continue with the upcoming data. 

Inflation for the German economy will be released at 3pm HKT and is expected to show a drop to 2.9% 

Canadian employment is expected to increase by 15k, but the unemployment rate will rise by a percentage point. A recent bounce in the oil price has also helped the Canadian dollar find new gains. 

Germany continues to be the “sick man of Europe” as its industrial sector marked its most prolonged downturn since the country reunified three decades ago. Europe’s largest economy and the previous driver of the region said official data showed that output fell a further 1.6% in December. That figure was the seventh monthly slump, creating the most prolonged downturn for German industry since the early 1990s. Production is now 10% below its pre-pandemic levels, underlining the crisis sweeping Germany’s industrial heartlands. 

Melanie Debono, an economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said the latest figures were “ugly” and said: “The recession in industry will continue.” 

Franziska Palmas, senior economist at Capital Economics, said: “High energy costs and weak domestic and external demand will cause German industrial output to decline further in 2024.” 

In December, production in energy-intensive industries fell by 5.8%. Production slumped 7.6% in the chemical industry in the same month, and construction dropped 3.4%. 

The latest figures could see further pressure on the euro. They may force the European Central Bank to cut interest rates lower than Canada’s.

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