Oil Movement Overview
Oil prices extended their decline in early Asian trade on Wednesday after falling for a second straight session. Investors weighed diplomatic efforts to end the US-Israeli war with Iran and awaited the outcome of the US midterm elections.
Brent crude fell 0.25% to $103.34 a barrel as of 09:57 UTC+8 on 4 November 2026. US West Texas Intermediate crude slipped 0.55% to $95.56. Brent ended Tuesday’s session at a multi-week low.
Brent Crude
WTI Crude
Key Driver Behind The Move
Hopes for a diplomatic resolution continued to weigh on prices. Qatar has stepped up its mediation, with Qatari representatives visiting Tehran on Monday. Both sides are reviewing fresh proposals from mediators.
US President Donald Trump said the US has no immediate plans to strike Iran. He said in an interview that “we seem to be getting everything we want.”
Signals remain mixed, however. A senior Iranian official said Iran and the US remain far from a deal. US officials described recent strikes on Iran’s Qeshm Island, near the Strait of Hormuz, as limited and defensive. Some analysts said the strikes had renewed uncertainty and left the diplomatic opening vulnerable.
Market Data And Reaction
Prices rose earlier on Tuesday after reports of the strikes but reversed as attention returned to diplomacy.
Industry data offered some support. The American Petroleum Institute reported that US crude inventories fell by 5.27 million barrels in the week ended 30 October. Analysts had expected a build.
Broader Market Implications
Before the vote, expectations of post-election military action had pushed crude to a multi-month high. Diplomatic signals have since reversed that move.
Not everyone expects the war-risk premium to fade fully. Some analysts said diplomacy headlines alone are unlikely to erase it completely.
The midterms add another layer of uncertainty. The vote count will decide whether Republicans keep control of Congress, which could shape the administration’s approach to the conflict.
What Oil Traders Should Watch
- Final US midterm election results, and any shift in Washington’s stance on Iran.
- US Energy Information Administration weekly inventory data, due at 23:30 UTC+8 on 4 November 2026, to see whether it confirms the API draw.
- Responses from Tehran and Washington to the mediators’ latest proposals, and any further Qatar-led talks.
