Midterms in Focus as Gold Rebounds and Oil Eases

Global Market Review 02/11/2026

• The supplied closing snapshot showed the Dollar Index at 101.96, the 2-year Treasury yield at 4.588% and the 10-year at 4.929%.
• Brent was $113.43, WTI $104.12 and gold $3,875.02.
• Early Monday reports showed a modest recovery in oil, with Brent around $112.
• The supplied charts later showed USOIL near $101.67, gold near $3,909 and Bitcoin near $78,475; these are separate quote snapshots.

Economic Calendar

Key Events on November 2 (GMT+8)

Key Events on November 3 (GMT+8)

• Japan holiday — Culture Day; US midterm elections (US local date)
• US daylight saving time ended November 1. Election results may develop on November 4 in GMT+8.
• Four-hour chart prices may differ from cash closes and news quotes because of timing and instrument specifications.

Markets Analysis 02/11/2026

• Resistance: 1.1210/1.1233
• Support: 1.1136/1.1113

Analyst’s View: European retail sales and factory data will test growth after the ECB’s hold. High energy costs and France’s fiscal uncertainty remain constraints. US ISM and payrolls will also shape Fed expectations and Dollar demand, influencing whether the Euro can extend its rebound.

EUR/USD is near 1.1170 after rebounding from 1.1113 and retreating again from above 1.1200. Price remains below the descending channel’s midline. A recovery to 1.1173 and 1.1191 would improve the short-term picture ahead of 1.1210–1.1233 resistance. Below 1.1155, attention returns to the marked supports at 1.1136 and 1.1113.

Bias: Cautiously Bearish

• Resistance: 1.3437/1.3455
• Support: 1.3363/1.3346

Analyst’s View: UK inflation at 3.5% supports expectations of a BoE hike to 4.00% on Thursday, but the vote split and forecasts will shape the subsequent rate outlook. Today’s manufacturing PMI provides an activity check, while US data and election developments could still drive Sterling through Dollar demand.

GBP/USD is near 1.3390 after pulling back from above 1.3420. Price remains in the upper half of the rising channel. A recovery to 1.3398 and 1.3420 would bring the 1.3437–1.3455 resistance zone into focus.

Bias: Neutral to Cautiously Bullish

• Resistance: 158.52/158.95
• Support: 157.18/156.76

Analyst’s View: The BoJ’s Friday hold at 1.25% keeps the timing of its next hike in focus. Japan’s inflation supports tightening, but the US–Japan rate gap still favours the Dollar. ISM and payrolls will inform expectations for that gap, while intervention concerns remain a constraint on sharp Yen declines.

USD/JPY is near 157.79 after rebounding from 157.18 and moving above the descending channel’s midline. A break above 157.85 would bring 158.19 into focus before the marked resistance at 158.52 and 158.95.

Bias: Neutral to Cautiously Bullish

• Resistance: 104.16/105.19
• Support: 99.71/98.65

Analyst’s View: Talks involving Iran and Qatari mediators have eased some immediate escalation concerns, helping oil pull back. However, the proposal to restore Hormuz traffic remains conditional, while attacks on shipping and energy infrastructure leave supply risks unresolved.

OPEC+ kept December production targets unchanged. With actual exports still disrupted, unchanged targets do not guarantee stable supply. The midterms add headline risk, but subsequent military action remains a scenario rather than a confirmed event.

USOIL is near $101.67 after retreating from the $104 area. A sustained break below the channel boundary would bring $100.76 into focus, followed by the marked support zone at 99.71–98.65.

Bias: Neutral to Cautiously Bearish

• Resistance: 3955/3973
• Support: 3858/3840

• Resistance: 51.74/52.42
• Support: 48.87/48.21

Analyst’s View: Gold is rebounding as lower oil prices ease some immediate inflation concerns. Energy costs remain high, however, and a December Fed hike remains possible. This week’s manufacturing PMI and employment data will help shape those rate expectations.

The preceding selloff may have reduced gold’s usual support from lower yields, but the scale of margin-driven liquidation has not been independently established.

Gold is near $3,909 after rebounding from around $3,880. Price remains below $3,915 and the 3,955–3,973 resistance zone. A recovery to $3,915 and $3,938 would help stabilise the rebound; below $3,898 and $3,880, support is marked at $3,858 and $3,840.

Silver’s industrial demand adds sensitivity to today’s factory surveys. It is near $49.89 after rebounding from the lower channel boundary. Recovering $50.23 and $51.06 would bring 51.74–52.42 into focus; below $49.54, attention returns to $48.87 and $48.21.

Bias: Gold Cautiously Bearish; Silver Cautiously Bearish

• Resistance: 80508/81535
• Support: 76159/75150

Analyst’s View: Binance is restoring withdrawals in phases and says it has covered about 95% of affected assets. It has pledged to absorb the financial impact. Restoring access reduces one disruption, but confidence and fund outflows remain important.

The elections and US jobs data will also shape risk appetite. A broader recovery could support Bitcoin, while renewed concerns about exchange security or higher borrowing costs could interrupt it.

Bitcoin is near $78,475 after recovering from the $76,159 area. Price is above $78,212 but below the rising channel’s midline near $79,482. If $78,212 gives way, the next intermediate level is $77,168, followed by $76,159 and $75,150. The rebound has improved the immediate picture, but price has yet to regain the key resistance zone.

Bias: Neutral to Cautiously Bearish

Disclaimer: This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.