The BoJ held its benchmark rate at 1.25% and judged that underlying inflation has reached its 2% target, leaving scope for a December hike.
Ueda’s briefing and US wage data are the next key events.
Next week brings the US midterms, RBA and BoE decisions, and payrolls. Policy expectations face new tests as gold tests $4,000.
Today’s Focus: Following the BoJ’s expected hold, attention turns to Governor Kazuo Ueda’s briefing around 15:30 Japan time, or 14:30 GMT+8. Investors will assess whether he signals a December hike and how quickly policy could tighten thereafter.
Germany’s GDP and CPI, euro area GDP and Canadian GDP follow later. The US Employment Cost Index at 20:30 adds a wage-pressure test. Australia’s released PPI rose 1.1% quarter on quarter and 3.6% year on year.
Global Market Review 30/10/2026
Reference quotes showed the 2-year Treasury yield at 4.598%, Brent at $115.50, WTI at $102.89 and gold at $4,020.42.
Later Friday reporting put the Dollar Index near 101.77 and the 10-year yield near 4.90%.
The supplied 10:21 charts showed gold near $3,998 and Bitcoin near $76,858.
Economic Calendar
Key Events on October 30 (GMT+8)
Time (GMT+8)
Event
Importance
08:30
AU PPI QoQ Q3
**
11:00
BoJ Rate Decision and Quarterly Outlook (Bank’s View)
***
14:30
BoJ Press Conference
***
17:00
Germany GDP QoQ Flash Q3
***
18:00
Euro Area GDP QoQ Flash Q3
***
20:30
Canada GDP MoM AUG
**
20:30
US Employment Cost Index QoQ Q3
***
21:00
Germany CPI YoY Preliminary OCT
**
Key Data and Events Next Week | November 2–6 (GMT+8)
Monday: Germany retail sales; US ISM manufacturing PMI; BoJ Outlook full text.
Tuesday: Japan Culture Day holiday; US midterm elections; RBA decision and press conference; US JOLTs job openings and factory orders.
Wednesday: API inventories; euro area CPI; US ADP employment, trade balance and ISM services PMI; EIA inventories.
Thursday: BoJ September meeting minutes; US jobless claims; euro area PPI; BoE decision, minutes and Monetary Policy Report.
Friday: Germany industrial production; euro area retail sales; US payrolls, unemployment and preliminary Michigan sentiment; Canadian unemployment.
Also due during the week: final manufacturing, services and composite PMIs across major economies, including Japan, Australia, China, the euro area, the UK and the US.
US daylight saving time ends November 1: 08:30 ET releases shift to 21:30 GMT+8. Election results may develop into November 4 in GMT+8.
Four-hour chart prices may differ from cash closes and news quotes because of timing and instrument specifications.
Analyst’s View: The ECB held its deposit rate at 2.50% and warned that higher energy costs could lift inflation while slowing growth. Today’s euro area GDP and German CPI will help assess that tension.
The Euro’s rebound also coincides with a softer Dollar and lower US yields. US headline PCE inflation rose to 3.6% year on year, however, keeping further Fed tightening relevant ahead of next week’s jobs data.
EUR/USD is near 1.1203 after rebounding from the 1.1105 area and reclaiming the descending channel’s midline. A move above 1.1207 would bring 1.1226 into focus, followed by the marked resistance at 1.1245 and 1.1269. Holding 1.1187 would help preserve the recovery.
Analyst’s View: Sterling’s recovery is supported by a softer Dollar and expectations of a BoE hike on November 5. UK inflation at 3.5% keeps the tightening case in view, but the vote split and updated forecasts will shape expectations beyond that meeting.
Next week’s US employment data could change the relative rate outlook. A firm US labor market would leave the Fed with less reason to soften its inflation stance, potentially limiting further Pound gains.
GBP/USD is near 1.3396 after a sharp rebound from below 1.3300. Price is testing the descending channel’s upper boundary near 1.3398; a break above 1.3420 would strengthen the recovery toward 1.3437 and 1.3455.
Analyst’s View: The BoJ held its benchmark rate at 1.25%, as expected, while judging that underlying inflation has reached its 2% target. That assessment strengthens the case for further tightening and leaves a December hike possible, without committing the bank to that timing.
Tokyo core CPI eased to 2.6% from 2.7%, but the BoJ’s underlying inflation assessment captures a broader price trend. Ueda’s briefing around 14:30 GMT+8 is now the focus: firmer guidance could support the Yen, while caution on timing could limit its gains.
USD/JPY is near 157.45 after retreating from the 158.08 area. It is just below 157.48, with intermediate support at 157.21 and 156.95; a break lower would bring 156.68 and 156.42 into focus.
A recovery to 157.48 would help stabilize the pair, but a sustained move through 157.81–158.08 is needed to improve the short-term picture within the descending channel.
Analyst’s View: Oil remains caught between regional diplomacy and unresolved Middle East supply risks. Progress in talks involving Iran could reduce the risk premium, while further attacks on Saudi infrastructure or shipping could support prices.
Next week’s US midterms add headline risk, but reported scenarios for subsequent military action remain uncertain. ISM surveys, US employment data and inventory reports will also help assess demand against those supply concerns.
Morning news quotes put WTI around $102, following the $102.89 reference quote. The whole-dollar levels above are price references: holding above $100 would preserve scope to retest $103, with $104 relevant if that move extends.
A sustained move below $100 would instead bring $99 into focus and suggest that diplomatic relief or demand concerns are outweighing supply risk. The near-term bias remains neutral while these competing factors persist.
Analyst’s View: September core PCE rose 0.3% month on month and 3.1% year on year, while US GDP grew at a 3.4% annualized pace. These readings keep inflation and further tightening in focus, without making a December hike certain.
Gold fell despite a softer Dollar and lower Treasury yields. Position reductions and cash-raising may have outweighed their usual support, while elevated oil prices maintained inflation concerns. Widespread margin-driven liquidation has not been confirmed.
Gold is near $3,998, testing the lower edge of its short-term rising channel after retreating from $4,066. Below $3,991, attention turns to $3,973 and $3,955. Recovering $4,008 and then $4,031 would help stabilize price before resistance at 4,049–4,066.
Silver also faces a demand test from next week’s manufacturing surveys. Price is near $51.41, below $52.19 and close to the channel’s lower boundary. Below $50.96, marked supports are $50.59 and $50.21; recovering 52.19–52.66 would ease immediate pressure.
Analyst’s View: Binance says around $3 billion in assets linked to the security incident have been frozen. Deposits and withdrawals remain suspended, and the exchange says it will cover losses. The frozen amount is separate from the final loss assessment.
Next week’s US jobs data and rate decisions remain broader risk catalysts. A recovery in risk sentiment could help Bitcoin stabilize, but continued uncertainty over the Binance incident may keep rallies constrained independently of those macro factors.
Bitcoin is near $76,858 after breaking below $80,000, $79,680 and $78,466. Price is near the descending channel’s lower boundary; below $76,501, attention turns toward $75,298 and $74,536.
An initial rebound would face $77,108 and $77,695. Reclaiming the marked resistance zone at 78,466–79,083 would be needed to reduce immediate downside pressure.
Bias: Cautiously Bearish
Disclaimer: This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.
Martin Lam is ATFX Chief Analyst for Asia Pacific, with over 20 years of experience in global forex and investment markets. He holds a degree in Finance and Economics from Deakin University and has held senior roles at leading FX brokerage firms.
This market commentary and analysis has been prepared for ATFX by a third party for general information purposes only. Any view expressed does not constitute a personal recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell as it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives, and should therefore not be interpreted as financial, investment or other advice, or relied upon as such. You should therefore seek independent advice before making any investment decisions. This information has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. We aim to establish and maintain and operate effective organisational and administrative arrangements with a view to taking all reasonable steps to prevent conflicts of interest from constituting or giving rise to a material risk of damage to the interests of our clients. The market data is derived from independent sources believed to be reliable, however we make no representation or warranty of its accuracy or completeness, and accept no responsibility for any consequence of its use by recipients. Reproduction of this information, in whole or in part, is not permitted.
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BoJ Holds Rates as Gold Tests $4,000
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Key Takeaways
Next week brings the US midterms, RBA and BoE decisions, and payrolls. Policy expectations face new tests as gold tests $4,000.
Today’s Focus: Following the BoJ’s expected hold, attention turns to Governor Kazuo Ueda’s briefing around 15:30 Japan time, or 14:30 GMT+8. Investors will assess whether he signals a December hike and how quickly policy could tighten thereafter.
Germany’s GDP and CPI, euro area GDP and Canadian GDP follow later. The US Employment Cost Index at 20:30 adds a wage-pressure test. Australia’s released PPI rose 1.1% quarter on quarter and 3.6% year on year.
Global Market Review 30/10/2026
Economic Calendar
Key Events on October 30 (GMT+8)
Key Data and Events Next Week | November 2–6 (GMT+8)
Markets Analysis 30/10/2026
EURUSD
Analyst’s View: The ECB held its deposit rate at 2.50% and warned that higher energy costs could lift inflation while slowing growth. Today’s euro area GDP and German CPI will help assess that tension.
The Euro’s rebound also coincides with a softer Dollar and lower US yields. US headline PCE inflation rose to 3.6% year on year, however, keeping further Fed tightening relevant ahead of next week’s jobs data.
EUR/USD is near 1.1203 after rebounding from the 1.1105 area and reclaiming the descending channel’s midline. A move above 1.1207 would bring 1.1226 into focus, followed by the marked resistance at 1.1245 and 1.1269. Holding 1.1187 would help preserve the recovery.
Bias: Neutral to Cautiously Bullish
GBPUSD
Analyst’s View: Sterling’s recovery is supported by a softer Dollar and expectations of a BoE hike on November 5. UK inflation at 3.5% keeps the tightening case in view, but the vote split and updated forecasts will shape expectations beyond that meeting.
Next week’s US employment data could change the relative rate outlook. A firm US labor market would leave the Fed with less reason to soften its inflation stance, potentially limiting further Pound gains.
GBP/USD is near 1.3396 after a sharp rebound from below 1.3300. Price is testing the descending channel’s upper boundary near 1.3398; a break above 1.3420 would strengthen the recovery toward 1.3437 and 1.3455.
Bias: Neutral to Cautiously Bullish
USDJPY
Analyst’s View: The BoJ held its benchmark rate at 1.25%, as expected, while judging that underlying inflation has reached its 2% target. That assessment strengthens the case for further tightening and leaves a December hike possible, without committing the bank to that timing.
Tokyo core CPI eased to 2.6% from 2.7%, but the BoJ’s underlying inflation assessment captures a broader price trend. Ueda’s briefing around 14:30 GMT+8 is now the focus: firmer guidance could support the Yen, while caution on timing could limit its gains.
USD/JPY is near 157.45 after retreating from the 158.08 area. It is just below 157.48, with intermediate support at 157.21 and 156.95; a break lower would bring 156.68 and 156.42 into focus.
A recovery to 157.48 would help stabilize the pair, but a sustained move through 157.81–158.08 is needed to improve the short-term picture within the descending channel.
Bias: Neutral to Cautiously Bearish
US Crude Oil Futures (OCT)
Analyst’s View: Oil remains caught between regional diplomacy and unresolved Middle East supply risks. Progress in talks involving Iran could reduce the risk premium, while further attacks on Saudi infrastructure or shipping could support prices.
Next week’s US midterms add headline risk, but reported scenarios for subsequent military action remain uncertain. ISM surveys, US employment data and inventory reports will also help assess demand against those supply concerns.
Morning news quotes put WTI around $102, following the $102.89 reference quote. The whole-dollar levels above are price references: holding above $100 would preserve scope to retest $103, with $104 relevant if that move extends.
A sustained move below $100 would instead bring $99 into focus and suggest that diplomatic relief or demand concerns are outweighing supply risk. The near-term bias remains neutral while these competing factors persist.
Bias: Neutral
Spot Gold (XAU/USD)
Spot Silver (XAG/USD)
Analyst’s View: September core PCE rose 0.3% month on month and 3.1% year on year, while US GDP grew at a 3.4% annualized pace. These readings keep inflation and further tightening in focus, without making a December hike certain.
Gold fell despite a softer Dollar and lower Treasury yields. Position reductions and cash-raising may have outweighed their usual support, while elevated oil prices maintained inflation concerns. Widespread margin-driven liquidation has not been confirmed.
Gold is near $3,998, testing the lower edge of its short-term rising channel after retreating from $4,066. Below $3,991, attention turns to $3,973 and $3,955. Recovering $4,008 and then $4,031 would help stabilize price before resistance at 4,049–4,066.
Silver also faces a demand test from next week’s manufacturing surveys. Price is near $51.41, below $52.19 and close to the channel’s lower boundary. Below $50.96, marked supports are $50.59 and $50.21; recovering 52.19–52.66 would ease immediate pressure.
Bias: Gold Cautiously Bearish; Silver Cautiously Bearish
Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
Analyst’s View: Binance says around $3 billion in assets linked to the security incident have been frozen. Deposits and withdrawals remain suspended, and the exchange says it will cover losses. The frozen amount is separate from the final loss assessment.
Next week’s US jobs data and rate decisions remain broader risk catalysts. A recovery in risk sentiment could help Bitcoin stabilize, but continued uncertainty over the Binance incident may keep rallies constrained independently of those macro factors.
Bitcoin is near $76,858 after breaking below $80,000, $79,680 and $78,466. Price is near the descending channel’s lower boundary; below $76,501, attention turns toward $75,298 and $74,536.
An initial rebound would face $77,108 and $77,695. Reclaiming the marked resistance zone at 78,466–79,083 would be needed to reduce immediate downside pressure.
Bias: Cautiously Bearish
Disclaimer: This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.
About the author
Martin Lam
Martin Lam is ATFX Chief Analyst for Asia Pacific, with over 20 years of experience in global forex and investment markets. He holds a degree in Finance and Economics from Deakin University and has held senior roles at leading FX brokerage firms.
More from Martin Lam
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Fed Holds Rates and Warsh Outlines the Plan for Fewer Rate Votes
Dollar Weakens as AI Debt Worries Drive Investors to Safe Havens
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This market commentary and analysis has been prepared for ATFX by a third party for general information purposes only. Any view expressed does not constitute a personal recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell as it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives, and should therefore not be interpreted as financial, investment or other advice, or relied upon as such. You should therefore seek independent advice before making any investment decisions. This information has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. We aim to establish and maintain and operate effective organisational and administrative arrangements with a view to taking all reasonable steps to prevent conflicts of interest from constituting or giving rise to a material risk of damage to the interests of our clients. The market data is derived from independent sources believed to be reliable, however we make no representation or warranty of its accuracy or completeness, and accept no responsibility for any consequence of its use by recipients. Reproduction of this information, in whole or in part, is not permitted.
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