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Tech-Led Selloff Ahead of Payrolls
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Key Takeaways
Haven demand is rising. Gold is on course for its biggest weekly gain since August, while the Yen and government bonds are rallying. Global tightening also continues: the Bank of England raised Bank Rate to 4% for the first time in more than three years, and Japan’s fastest wage growth since 1997 keeps a December BoJ hike in play. CME FedWatch shows about a 66% chance of a Fed hike in December, down from 79.9% a week earlier.
Today’s Focus: US October nonfarm payrolls at 21:30 GMT+8 are the main event. Payroll growth is forecast at 65,000 (previous 29,000), with unemployment at 4.2% and average hourly earnings up 0.3% m/m (previous 0.1%). Canadian unemployment (forecast 6.5%) is released at the same time, and the preliminary University of Michigan sentiment index follows at 23:00 (forecast 48).
Earlier, Germany’s industrial production (forecast 0% vs. 2% previous) is due at 15:00, and euro area retail sales (forecast -0.1% vs. 0.1%) at 18:00. Fed speakers Williams, Musalem, and Bowman; ECB’s Lane at 17:30; and BoJ Governor Ueda at 00:00 on Saturday may shape rate expectations. Next week brings China CPI and PPI on Monday, then US CPI and the weekly ADP employment report on Tuesday.
Global Market Review 06/11/2026
Economic Calendar
Key Events on November 6 (GMT+8)
Key Events on November 9–13 (GMT+8)
Markets Analysis 06/11/2026
EURUSD
Analyst’s View: EUR/USD held near 1.1217 as a flat Dollar and the ECB policy debate offset tech-led risk aversion. Euro area October inflation at 4% and September producer prices up 11.1% y/y keep a December hike on the table: Lagarde said data before then will decide, and Nagel and Panetta said a move may be needed. ECB’s Lane and retail sales are due today.
EUR/USD is near 1.1217 after being rejected at 1.1270, where the upper channel line meets the 1.0 Fibonacci level. It is hovering around the dashed channel midline. A break above 1.1270 would bring 1.1289 into focus, while a loss of 1.1207 would expose the 1.1168–1.1144 support zone.
Bias: Neutral
GBPUSD
Analyst’s View: The BoE raised Bank Rate to 4%, its first hike in more than three years, and warned that inflation will approach 5% next year. Governor Bailey said another hike is “more likely than not” if recent high energy costs return, and markets price in about a 1-in-2 chance of a December move. The Pound has lost its post-decision bounce and is heading for its first loss in seven sessions.
GBP/USD is near 1.3449 after stalling at 1.3493 and the upper channel line near 1.3500, its highest since mid-September. Price is testing the dashed channel midline around 1.3437–1.3454; a break above 1.3493/1.3511 would restore momentum, while a loss of 1.3437 would put the 1.3398–1.3381 support zone in focus.
Bias: Neutral
USDJPY
Analyst’s View: The Yen gained as the minutes of the BoJ’s October 30 meeting, held at 1.25% with one dissent in favor of 1.5%, were read as a case for a December hike. September nominal wages rose 4.6% y/y, the fastest since January 1997, and real wages rose 2.2%. Haven flows and lower US yields provided support; Governor Ueda speaks at 00:00 on Saturday.
USD/JPY is near 157.85, testing the 0.5 level (157.86) after a rejection below 158.34–158.55 and a spike low at 157.23. The pair has held the 156–159 range since late September; a recovery above 158.34/158.55 would support stabilization, while a break below 157.23/156.96 would extend the decline.
Bias: Neutral to Cautiously Bearish
US Crude Oil Futures (OCT)
Analyst’s View: Oil rebounded after falling more than 8% on Wednesday, on hopes that the midterm results would increase pressure to end the Iran war. Supply risks remain high: at least five vessels have been hit since Sunday, and the IRGC said two tankers caught fire near Hormuz. Eurasia Group puts the odds of renewed US strikes at 60% and says escalation could push Brent to $110–125, yet crude is still on track for its biggest weekly loss since April.
USOIL is near $91.10 after bouncing off the 86.87supportlevelandistestingthe0.736level(91.65) and the descending channel’s dashed midline. A break above $91.65 would open the 93.79–95.93 resistance zone, while a loss of $86.87 would expose $84.77.
Bias: Neutral
Spot Gold (XAU/USD)
Spot Silver (XAG/USD)
Analyst’s View: Gold is set for its biggest weekly gain since August, driven by haven demand amid the tech route, lower Treasury yields, and lower oil, with the 10-year yield near 4.83%. Cleveland Fed’s Hammack said rates must remain restrictive, and Richmond Fed’s Barkin favors a gradual approach to further hikes, so tonight’s payrolls could swing yields and gold.
Gold is near $4,068 after being rejected at the upper channel line near $4,147 and slipping below the channel midline and the $4,082 level. A recovery above $4,082 would resume the rebound toward 4,132–4,164, while a loss of $4,051 would put 4,026–4,001, the channel base, in focus.
Silver is near 51.87afterfailingatthe0.736level(53.05) and is hovering around the 0.5 level ($51.64). A break above 53.05/53.74 would resume the recovery, while a loss of $50.93 would expose $50.06.
Bias: Gold Neutral; Silver Neutral to Cautiously Bearish
Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
Analyst’s ViewBitcoin fell 6.2% to about $75,700, and Ether 8.5%, as the tech selloff hit risk appetite and investors weighed the prospect of closer congressional scrutiny of crypto. A major firm’s sale of 10,599 BTC in the September quarter to fund an AI pivot added pressure.
BTC is near $76,048 after a sharp reversal from $81,110 to $75,644, below the dashed channel midline. A recovery above 77,087/77,732 would ease pressure, while a loss of $75,644 would expose 74,354/73,534.
Bias: Cautiously Bearish
Disclaimer: This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.
About the author
Martin Lam
Martin Lam is ATFX Chief Analyst for Asia Pacific, with over 20 years of experience in global forex and investment markets. He holds a degree in Finance and Economics from Deakin University and has held senior roles at leading FX brokerage firms.
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