差價合約是複雜的金融交易產品,可帶來由槓桿作用而導致迅速虧損的高風險。 大部分的零售投資者帳戶在跟交易差價合約時錄得資金虧損。您應當考慮您是否充分明白差價合約如何運作,以及您是否能承受您的資金損失的高風險。

美債息趨升 日圓或跌至125

美國3月就業報告中,ADP私人職位報告由上月47.5萬縮減至45.5萬,官方非農就業數據由上月67.8萬縮減至43.1萬。為市場帶來驚喜是3月失業率下降至3.6%略勝上月3.8%,平均工資月率和年率也分別增長。從該最新就業數據反映美國勞工市場仍然平穩向好,工資繼續增長或誘發通脹上升。下星期美國公佈3月CPI數據結果,可獲得最新美國通脹狀況。

因應通脤上升和加息步伐,美國短中期國庫債券孳息率分別拉升,最近國庫債券出現孳息率倒掛現象,市場擔心如過往經濟出現衰退。近期美國一些經濟數據,察覺這情況可能正在醞釀發生。

 

美元持續上試99.38

上周公布去年第四季GDP年率較前一季微跌報6.9%,更預期7.1%略低。另外,3月諮商消費者信心指數繼之前公佈的密歇根大學消費者信心同樣下跌,相信高企通脹正在影響消費者消費意願,隨時引發經濟收縮。而3月製造業及服務業PMI初值回升,明日這兩項數據終值將揭曉,結果可反映最新脈搏並觀察經濟是否出現放緩。還有本周美聯儲公佈3月FOMC貨幣政策紀要,內容或指引下月議息展望,可影響國債孳息率和美元走向。

技術上,美元從近兩年高位回落,突破20日線,再挑戰前兩週低位97.68,最後反彈。若美元持續向上測試99.38。相反若走勢持續在20日線下方,則觀察97.68重要支撐。

美國和日本國債收益率息差擴濶,美元兌日圓一度急升至125水平,近七年高位。日本央行表示,積極回購國債以減輕日圓貶值壓力,上周美元兌日圓由125由落至121水平。值得留意本周美國一系列經濟數據和美聯儲官員言論,若刺激美債孳息率趨升,美元兌日圓可再重上125水平。技術上,重要支撐位留意120.30。

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