差价合约是复杂的金融交易产品,可带来由杠杆作用而导致迅速亏损的高风险。大部分的零售投资者帐户在跟交易差价合约时录得资金亏损。您应当考虑您是否充分明白差价合约如何运作,以及您是否能承受您的资金损失的高风险。

美债息趋升 日圆或跌至125

美国3月就业报告中,ADP私人职位报告由上月47.5万缩减至45.5万,官方非农就业数据由上月67.8万缩减至43.1万。为市场带来惊喜是3月失业率下降至3.6%略胜上月3.8%,平均工资月率和年率也分别增长。从该最新就业数据反映美国劳工市场仍然平稳向好,工资继续增长或诱发通胀上升。下星期美国公布3月CPI数据结果,可获得最新美国通胀状况。

因应通脤上升和加息步伐,美国短中期国库债券孳息率分别拉升,最近国库债券出现孳息率倒挂现象,市场担心如过往经济出现衰退。近期美国一些经济数据,察觉这情况可能正在酝酿发生。

 

美元持续上试99.38

上周公布去年第四季GDP年率较前一季微跌报6.9%,更预期7.1%略低。另外,3月咨商消费者信心指数继之前公布的密歇根大学消费者信心同样下跌,相信高企通胀正在影响消费者消费意愿,随时引发经济收缩。而3月制造业及服务业PMI初值回升,明日这两项数据终值将揭晓,结果可反映最新脉搏并观察经济是否出现放缓。还有本周美联储公布3月FOMC货币政策纪要,内容或指引下月议息展望,可影响国债孳息率和美元走向。

技术上,美元从近两年高位回落,突破20日线,再挑战前两周低位97.68,最后反弹。若美元持续向上测试99.38。相反若走势持续在20日线下方,则观察97.68重要支撑。

美国和日本国债收益率息差扩濶,美元兑日圆一度急升至125水平,近七年高位。日本央行表示,积极回购国债以减轻日圆贬值压力,上周美元兑日圆由125由落至121水平。值得留意本周美国一系列经济数据和美联储官员言论,若刺激美债孳息率趋升,美元兑日圆可再重上125水平。技术上,重要支撑位留意120.30。

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