差價合約是複雜的金融交易產品,可帶來由槓桿作用而導致迅速虧損的高風險。 大部分的零售投資者帳戶在跟交易差價合約時錄得資金虧損。您應當考慮您是否充分明白差價合約如何運作,以及您是否能承受您的資金損失的高風險。

加息憧憬劇增導致金價跳水,今年下半年多頭還有機會嗎?

本周備受市場矚目的美國CPI數據出爐,超出市場預期的8.8%,一舉衝破9.1%。 急速飆升的通脹數據給美元帶來動力,卻為黃金市場帶來劇烈震蕩,從當前形勢看黃金跌幅擴大,已經跌破了1750美元。 由於在美聯儲月底的會議召開之前,市場上充滿著激進加息的鷹派言論,短期來講會讓金價持續承壓,那麼今年下半年,金價多頭還有機會嗎?

目前黃金市場仍然是空頭佔據上風,金價處於下行試探的走勢之中,CPI數據的出爐加劇了走勢的震蕩,行情仍然不利於做多,一旦金價跌破1720美元的關鍵支撐位,空頭將有機會瞄準金價繼續下試1710或1700美元。

gold price chart

雖然近期金價一路震蕩下行,但是步入下半年之後黃金的避險需求仍然存在,短期內雖然是看空為多,但是中長期來看反轉的信號仍可能出現。 隨著高企的通脹席捲各國,各國央行持續的加息導致各國陷入衰退的可能性大大增加,尤其是市場已經有預測美聯儲接下來極大可能會激進加息75個甚至100個基點,若經濟無法承受大幅加息而出現下行,令市場避險情緒升溫,將仍然有機會利好黃金價格反彈。

另外,我們需要注意西方各國對俄羅斯的制裁已經蔓延到了黃金市場。 在6月26日召開的G7高峰會上美、英、日、加拿大等4國宣佈了對俄羅斯的最新制裁,宣佈禁止進口俄羅斯新開採或精鍊的黃金,而G7全體會員國將在28日正式宣佈。

俄羅斯是全球第二大黃金生產國,產量佔全球比重約10%。 市場此前會擔憂該項禁令會令金價有所反彈,實際上這項禁令對金價影響非常有限,因為當前各國黃金儲備處於歷史高位並存在產量過剩,再加上各國紛紛開始加息,所以難以改變通過限制一國產量就令黃金承壓格局發生改變。 若歐洲禁止進口俄羅斯黃金,俄羅斯也會尋求新的黃金買家,例如印度等亞洲國家。

總體而言,今年下半年,在美聯儲加息預期下避險資產紛紛湧入美元,短期黃金價格或持續承壓,黃金投資者接下來關注的重點應該放在各國的經濟風險有沒有因為加息而升溫,需要留意各國的宏觀經濟數據和就業數據,以及各國CPI的轉捩點什麼時候出現,尤其需要留意未來美元指數和美債收益率的轉捩點。

今年下半年黃金市場預計會較上半年的走勢更加波動,因為會面臨各國緊縮政策帶來的挑戰,但是由於高通脹和俄烏戰爭等風險仍然沒有消散,雖然金價短期受到美元走強衝擊,但是預計下半年黃金價格仍然能夠受到風險因素的支援,加上連續加息加劇市場對經濟前景的擔憂會令股市下行風險增加,低迷的股市也會增加黃金對於避險者的吸引力。

彭博情報高級大宗商品策略師Mike McGlone指出,一旦市場確定美聯儲加息週期結束,金價可能突破每盎司2000美元的關鍵心理關口。 從此次美國公佈的CPI數據看,其很有可能在6月已經見頂,如果之後的CPI數據逐漸回落,則更可能令美聯儲開始調整下半年的加息步伐,那麼黃金就可能迎來新的機會。

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