差價合約是複雜的金融交易產品,可帶來由槓桿作用而導致迅速虧損的高風險。 大部分的零售投資者帳戶在跟交易差價合約時錄得資金虧損。您應當考慮您是否充分明白差價合約如何運作,以及您是否能承受您的資金損失的高風險。

美國經濟在衰退邊緣徘徊,GDP疲軟會拖累美元走勢嗎?

今晚,重磅經濟數據美國第一季度實際GDP年化季率終值即將出爐,前值為-1.50%,預計值為-1.40%,由於市場中持續瀰漫著美國經濟可能陷入衰退的預測,因此投資者對於第一季度GDP終值的出爐尤為關注。

同時,對於美國第二季度GDP的預測也並不樂觀,亞特蘭大聯準銀行預測顯示,第2季國內生產GDP可能是零成長,顯示經濟瀕臨衰退邊緣。 如果連續兩季美國GDP增長都是負增長,將表明經濟走勢在陷入衰退。

高盛將美國第二季度GDP增長預期維持在2.8%不變,但下調了今年第三季度至明年第一季度的增長預期,並認為美國經濟未來兩年陷入衰退的可能性加大,其累積機率升至達48%。

根據亞特蘭大聯準銀行的GDPNow預測模型的最新資料,截至6月7日,美國第2季國內生產GDP年增率預估值從1.3%下修至0.9%,代表美國經濟在第1季下滑1.5%之後,如今相當接近衰退邊緣。

接下來的GDP數據對於美元走勢可以說是至關重要,雖然市場仍預期美國下月加息75%的機會超過70%,但對於9月加息幅度,投資者完全消化加息50%,並認為明年3月利率升至35%左右後見頂。 如果市場對未來加息幅度如市場預測一樣逐漸縮減或終止,將會不利美元的後續表現。

如果美國經濟數據進一步顯示美國經濟有步入衰退的可能並且連續呈現零增長或負增長,激進加息政策的可能性將會更加走低,因為美聯儲不會選擇犧牲經濟增長大幅加息,到時加息的幅度可能會受到限制。 因此,近段時間經濟數據的低迷對於美元走勢也將會是不利的因素。 相反如果美國經濟數據超過市場預期,有可能讓美聯儲加息的決策更加堅定,將有利於美元反彈。

另一方面,美國的油價走勢仍然處於高位,雖然近兩周汽油價格有所回落,但是並沒有改變原油價格走高的局面,拜登政府在尋求通過禁止出口、暫停徵收汽油稅等方式,希望令油價有所降溫。 但是目前來看,能源供應緊張的現狀仍然在不斷推升油價,加上對俄羅斯制裁正在持續支持油價,供需失衡的情況下短期內很難通過為油價降溫令通脹下降,這將有利於維持加息的預期,但是幅度也會受到經濟數據的制約。

綜合而言,美元走勢仍然不明朗,要看加息預期因為經濟數據的變化會不會有所調整,市場需要密切留意第一季和接下來第二季的GDP數據以及各個分部的數據,來評估美國經濟前景究竟會陷入衰退還是有機會實現軟著陸。 不過,當前經濟下行的預測不利於提振持續低迷的股市,後續也需要關注一些官員的言論,以尋求他們對加息的立場有無發生變化,來看是否能對股市帶來一些反彈動力。

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