差價合約是複雜的金融交易產品,可帶來由槓桿作用而導致迅速虧損的高風險。 大部分的零售投資者帳戶在跟交易差價合約時錄得資金虧損。您應當考慮您是否充分明白差價合約如何運作,以及您是否能承受您的資金損失的高風險。

通脹料放緩 美匯指數或下試101

美國5月新增非農就業人口報39萬,低於上月42.8萬,略勝預期32.5萬。失業率維持3.6%,略高於預期3.5%,平均工資月率報持平,但年率下降由5.5%跌至5.24%,僅勝預期5.2%。總體美國5月非農就業數據符合市場期望,美元收復上周部份跌幅重上102水平。

雖然美國5月就業情況符合市場預期,但從5月服務業PMI和早前公佈製造業PMI分別放緩,其中上周公布的5月ISM非製造業PMI報55.9,低於前值57.1及預期56.4,數據表現未如理想,限制美元升幅。

美國年初至今兩次加息,近期一次5月議息會議加息50基點後,聯邦利率上限升至1厘。

5月美國經濟和就業市場數據紛出現收縮,表明美國經濟前景信心正在弱化,同時對於聯儲局是否需要那麼大幅度的加息持疑,甚至認為9月後可能暫停加息。

歐羅須更加鷹派言論提振

這種背景下,本周美國公佈5月CPI報告,或看到美國通脹水平是否受控,借此測試短期市場情緒的關鍵,因為投資者對於通脹降溫抱有期待,而CPI年率有望連續兩個月自高位回落,聯儲局加息步伐或放緩。如果通脹符合預期,美匯指數可能還會返回101或下方甚至看100.5水平。

與此同時,另一項可能拉低美元的指引來自於歐洲央行議息決議,因為這次歐央行可能明確指出7月份開啓升息,至少加息25至50基點,不過利率上調前景已經大部分被消化,若歐羅升幅擴大,相信需要央行提供更加鷹派的立場來加以提振,繼而挑戰突破1.08關口。反之,歐羅兌美元匯價繼續尋低看1.05水平。

另一項央行動態來自於澳洲聯儲銀行,預計本次會加息40基點,因為其最新零售銷售數據超預期,而且通脹維持高位,並為後續繼續收緊政策做鋪墊。

若議息會後說明這點,澳元有望擴大自5月中旬以來的上行趨勢,看向上周0.7280高位靠近,挑戰0.7350。

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