差价合约是复杂的金融交易产品,可带来由杠杆作用而导致迅速亏损的高风险。大部分的零售投资者帐户在跟交易差价合约时录得资金亏损。您应当考虑您是否充分明白差价合约如何运作,以及您是否能承受您的资金损失的高风险。

通胀料放缓 美汇指数或下试101

美国5月新增非农就业人口报39万,低于上月42.8万,略胜预期32.5万。失业率维持3.6%,略高于预期3.5%,平均工资月率报持平,但年率下降由5.5%跌至5.24%,仅胜预期5.2%。总体美国5月非农就业数据符合市场期望,美元收复上周部份跌幅重上102水平。

虽然美国5月就业情况符合市场预期,但从5月服务业PMI和早前公布制造业PMI分别放缓,其中上周公布的5月ISM非制造业PMI报55.9,低于前值57.1及预期56.4,数据表现未如理想,限制美元升幅。

美国年初至今两次加息,近期一次5月议息会议加息50基点后,联邦利率上限升至1厘。

5月美国经济和就业市场数据纷出现收缩,表明美国经济前景信心正在弱化,同时对于联储局是否需要那么大幅度的加息持疑,甚至认为9月后可能暂停加息。

欧罗须更加鹰派言论提振

这种背景下,本周美国公布5月CPI报告,或看到美国通胀水平是否受控,借此测试短期市场情绪的关键,因为投资者对于通胀降温抱有期待,而CPI年率有望连续两个月自高位回落,联储局加息步伐或放缓。如果通胀符合预期,美汇指数可能还会返回101或下方甚至看100.5水平。

与此同时,另一项可能拉低美元的指引来自于欧洲央行议息决议,因为这次欧央行可能明确指出7月份开启升息,至少加息25至50基点,不过利率上调前景已经大部分被消化,若欧罗升幅扩大,相信需要央行提供更加鹰派的立场来加以提振,继而挑战突破1.08关口。反之,欧罗兑美元汇价继续寻低看1.05水平。

另一项央行动态来自于澳洲联储银行,预计本次会加息40基点,因为其最新零售销售数据超预期,而且通胀维持高位,并为后续继续收紧政策做铺垫。

若议息会后说明这点,澳元有望扩大自5月中旬以来的上行趋势,看向上周0.7280高位靠近,挑战0.7350。

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