差價合約是複雜的金融交易產品,可帶來由槓桿作用而導致迅速虧損的高風險。 大部分的零售投資者帳戶在跟交易差價合約時錄得資金虧損。您應當考慮您是否充分明白差價合約如何運作,以及您是否能承受您的資金損失的高風險。

美國耐用品訂單升幅或收窄過半,這一數據釋放出哪些資訊?

俄烏衝突、美聯儲緊縮的貨幣政策,令借貸成本進一步上升,加劇了市場對於需求減少的擔憂。 今晚,美國4月耐用品訂單月率即將公佈,市場關注的重點在於本月的預測值相比前值的1.1%大跌過半至0.5%,而扣除運輸的耐用品訂單月率預計升0.6%。 如果耐用品訂單量符合預計升幅出現較大收窄,對於美國經濟和美元前景意味著什麼?

一般來說,耐用品訂單數據反映了當前市場的經濟狀況以及製造業未來的生產承諾,當耐用品訂單大幅下降時,可反映出製造業疲軟,製造業疲軟將會令失業率增加,經濟表現較淡;反之,當經濟表現蓬勃時,耐用品訂單亦會隨之而上升。

從3月數據上看,美國3月耐用品訂單在2月下滑1.7%之後增長0.8%(初值),但是仍為2021年2月以來最低。 另外,3月美國工廠訂單環比增加2.2%,超出了市場預期。 這些數據反映出美國3月的資本支出表現較為強勁,市場需求亦仍然強勁。

us durable goods orders 2022

然而,昨日公佈的美國5月Markit製造業PMI初值為57.5,為3個月以來新低,反映商務活動出現放緩跡象。 分項數據顯示,主要受到原材料短缺持續、供應商交貨延遲的影響,加上利率上升、生產成本上升,未完成訂單指數上升。 可見,隨著美國通脹達到接近40年高點,美聯儲通過加息抑制通脹的攀升,也同時增加了美國經濟衰退的風險。

美國2022年第一季度實際國內生產總值按年率計算下降1.4%,遠遠低於預期的增長1.1%,這也加劇了近期市場對美國經濟增長放緩甚至出現衰退的預期。 有經濟學家表示對於當前的加息政策非常擔憂,因為會增加投資成本,進一步扼殺經濟增長。 這一點也反映在了此次耐用品訂單預計值大幅收窄,反映出美國當季在新設備方面的商業投資表現不佳。 不過,還需要具體看是飛機、工業設備和其他耐久財哪一方面的新訂單相比上月大幅減少,以及是否是呈現整體性的下跌。

但是,另一方面也有經濟學家預計美國經濟有望在第二季度及以後恢復溫和增長,主要由於消費支出仍在持續增長,4月美國零售支出季調後環比增長0.9%。

至於美元未來的走勢,投資者需要密切留意接下來美聯儲最新會議紀要的公佈,加上製造業和耐用品生產、訂單、價格等關鍵指標的變化趨勢,來綜合看待宏觀經濟的走向。

截至目前,美元的發展仍然不明朗,美元指數結束了升勢,創下1月以來最大單周跌幅,刷新盤中低點 102.60附近。 未來一系列指標的公佈,對於預示經濟走向至關重要,也會明確美元的下一步走向。 如果數據預示整體經濟走向趨於疲軟,也可能會繼續拖累美元的走勢。

另外,由於俄烏之間的衝突,西方國家和俄羅斯之間的制裁對峙仍在持續,加上美聯儲如果在會議紀要中預示將維持較為激進的加息政策,這些因素均會增加美元向好發展的行情預期。

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