差價合約是複雜的金融交易產品,可帶來由槓桿作用而導致迅速虧損的高風險。 大部分的零售投資者帳戶在跟交易差價合約時錄得資金虧損。您應當考慮您是否充分明白差價合約如何運作,以及您是否能承受您的資金損失的高風險。

考慮加息超過25基點 美匯或上試100

聯儲局主席鮑威爾早前在國會貨幣政策委員會聽證會上表示,三月份聯儲局議息將會揭開逾兩年來首次加息的序幕。鮑威爾指出,加息幅度至少25基點(0.25%),但亦可能考慮更高。聯儲局的最終決定,將會是本次議息結果的最大焦點。

 

更關注聯儲貨幣政策

美國2月消費者物價指數年率已創40年高峰升至7.9%,月率升至0.8%。市場認為,高企的通脹,若聯儲局加息僅25基點,甚至50基點,不足以壓抑高企通脹。重點是聯儲局必須考慮周詳而溫和的加息步伐,同時規劃合適的縮減寬鬆政策規模和降低美國資產負債表。所以,星期三晚必須留意聯儲局的加息幅度外,更關注其貨幣政策的內容和展望。有關內容將會是全球投資者洞悉局方今年內的收緊貨幣政策節奏和幅度的規劃,直接影響市場投資氣氛。

 

局勢倘改善 英鎊可試1.3270

近兩星期,美國加息前景明朗化和東歐地緣政治局勢緊張,使歐洲資金流向美元,推升美元至近2年高位99水平。若聯儲局的加息信號更加清晰和緊密,同時烏俄局勢更加激烈,相信美元可受惠並測試100大關,或可能觸及2020年5月高位100.54。相反,美元調整將會下探技術支持位97.73。

緊貼聯儲局議息後是英國央行議息。利率期貨顯示,英國央行將再度加息25基點,調高至0.75%。原因是英國2月份通脹再度突破高峰,根據英國央行近期積極利用加息的方法以壓抑通脹,相信這次加息沒有懸念。不過,由於烏俄關係緊張及西方國家聯合製裁俄國,使英國經濟面對更大的挑戰。投資者觀望局勢發展態度審慎,英鎊兌美元承壓並跌至15個月低位。若地緣政治進一步升級,英鎊兌美元可能下探更低1.2860。反之,局勢明朗化和投資環境見改善,則可望收復失地,重試1.3270或1.3350阻力。

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