差價合約是複雜的金融交易產品,可帶來由槓桿作用而導致迅速虧損的高風險。 大部分的零售投資者帳戶在跟交易差價合約時錄得資金虧損。您應當考慮您是否充分明白差價合約如何運作,以及您是否能承受您的資金損失的高風險。

美元和金價或迎來新行情,7月CPI會成為美國通脹轉折點嗎?

週三晚,備受市場期待的美國7月CPI數據即將公佈,市場普遍預計美國7月未季調CPI年率為8.7%,較前值9.1%小幅回落。由於市場押注CPI數據會小幅回落,或令美元承壓,為其他非美元貨幣及黃金市場帶來機遇。

不過,需要注意的是,美國7月未季調核心CPI年率預計值為6.10%,預計較前值5.90%繼續上升,這也讓市場擔憂美元的回落可能幅度有限,並且未來可能仍有反彈的機會。chart cpi-1

由於能源價格是美國CPI增長的主要推動力,隨著全球各國通脹不斷飆升,市場對於經濟放緩的擔憂逐漸升溫令投資者擔憂對能源的需求量會逐漸下降,他們在近期拋售大宗商品的行為導緻美國原油價格一度大跌近10%。

能源價格的大幅回落為美國7月CPI的回落創造了契機,尤其是汽油價格的下跌令市場開始期待CPI數據會在未來呈現持續下跌的走勢。由於早前油價大漲一些美國人改變了出行方式,減少開車次數等,如今汽油價格大幅回落可能令其需求量在未來有所回升。

在過去2個月,美國是汽油價格在不斷回落,創下10多年來最快的跌幅。美國GasBuddy石油分析主管狄哈恩說,全美目前已有超過81000座加油站的每加侖汽油價格為3.99美元或更低,大多數地區的前景是繼續下跌。

糧食價格方面也有回落的消息傳來,聯合國糧農組織5日表示,全球食品價格指數7月下跌8.6%,跌幅為2008年10月以來最大。其中,小麥價格下跌14.5%、玉米價格下跌10.7%。us cpi yoy-1

不過,高盛的報告顯示繼續看好未來油價表現,其表示油價仍然會受到有力的因素支持上升,最近幾個月供應不足數額高過預期。高盛估計,倫敦期油價格第三季將會上升到110美元一桶,低於之前預測的140美元,第四季將會升至125美元,較之前預測低5美元。雖然高盛下降了本季度的油價預測,但是中長期來看,隨著冬季的來臨,原油價格仍然有可能回升,從而帶動CPI的上升。

那麼投資者可能會問,此次7月CPI數據會是美國通脹風險逐漸回落的標誌嗎?答案是,這樣的判斷還為時過早。

若通脹預期如市場預期有所回落,隨後市場對於美聯儲激進加息的押注或有所降溫,令到近期美元承壓的可能性較高,從而會利好金價的走高。不過,我們需要留意的是剔除較易波動的能源和食品價格之後的核心CPI數據,市場預計此次該數據仍會繼續上升,表明通脹的風險明顯依然存在,並沒有徹底轉向。這也是市場關注的焦點之一,如果其繼續上升,會對黃金市場多頭帶來不利影響,可能令金價上升的幅度受限,加上投行對於油價的長期看漲觀點也沒有改變。

可以看出的是,主要是由於能源價格的回落,以及消息面上糧食價格的回落,造成了此次整體CPI年率的估計值有所下調,但是由於地緣政治以及全球經濟前景仍存在較大不確定性,很難言能源和食品價格在未來會趨於穩定,這也對未來美國CPI走向帶來不確定性,也可能會限制美元的跌幅。後續投資者要密切留意一些美聯儲官員的言論,以尋找9月加息走向的線索。

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