差價合約是複雜的金融交易產品,可帶來由槓桿作用而導致迅速虧損的高風險。 大部分的零售投資者帳戶在跟交易差價合約時錄得資金虧損。您應當考慮您是否充分明白差價合約如何運作,以及您是否能承受您的資金損失的高風險。

日本市場可望因高市贏得大選而活躍

在日本首相高市於提前大選中贏得多數席位後,日圓和日經指數週一將呈現活躍走勢。

JPN225 – Daily Chart

JPN225指數-日線圖

JPN225指數週五突破阻力位,收在56,540點,上升趨勢線將成為未來一週的關鍵支撐位。

執政聯盟預計將取得自民黨自1996年以來最大的勝利,遠超贏得多數席次所需的233席。

首相高市沙根是前首相安倍晉三「安倍經濟學」政策的擁護者,該政策以極度寬鬆的貨幣政策和大規模支出為特徵。她提前舉行大選,旨在利用民眾對其政策的正面情緒,其中包括暫停徵收8%的食品和非酒精飲料稅兩年的計畫。

在日本批准自疫情爆發以來規模最大的經濟刺激計畫後,政府承諾將提高稅收。該計劃將向經濟注入21.3兆日圓(約1360億美元),用於生活成本紓困,例如能源補貼、現金獎勵和食品券。

東京上智大學副教授中野浩一表示:“物價上漲,但收入卻沒有明顯增長,因此人們感覺連基本生活必需品都越來越難以負擔。”

中野浩一指出,除了物價上漲之外,“在老齡化社會中,隨著支出增加,稅收和社會保障繳款也隨之增加”,這給家庭帶來了越來越大的壓力。

然而,鑑於近期債券市場出現裂痕以及日圓走軟,高市洋之擴大其政策授權範圍引發了投資者對日本財政狀況的擔憂。

日本央行在去年12月升息後,將基準利率維持在0.75%的30年高點,並表示將逐步收緊貨幣政策。

這次選舉將澄清近期政治領域的一些不確定性,但仍會引發人們對國家債務和支出走向的擔憂。食品價格措施將安撫消費者,但這只是短期緩解,對整體經濟的貢獻甚微。

關於作者

 

Martin Lam 是 ATFX 亞太區首席分析師,在全球外匯及投資市場擁有逾 20 年的經驗。他畢業於迪肯大學(Deakin University),主修金融與經濟學,並曾在多家領先的外匯經紀公司擔任高級管理職位。

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