日本市场有望因高市赢得大选而活跃

在日本首相高市于提前大选中赢得多数席位后,日元和日经指数周一将呈现活跃走势。

JPN225 – Daily Chart

JPN225指数——日线图

JPN225指数周五突破阻力位,收于56,540点,该上升趋势线将成为未来一周的关键支撑位。

执政联盟有望取得自民党自1996年以来最大的胜利,远超赢得多数席位所需的233席。

首相高市沙根是前首相安倍晋三“安倍经济学”政策的拥护者,该政策以极度宽松的货币政策和大规模支出为特征。她提前举行大选,旨在利用民众对其政策的积极情绪,其中包括暂停征收8%的食品和非酒精饮料税两年的计划。

在日本批准自疫情爆发以来规模最大的经济刺激计划后,政府承诺将提高税收。该计划将向经济注入21.3万亿日元(约合1360亿美元),用于生活成本纾困,例如能源补贴、现金奖励和食品券。

东京上智大学副教授中野浩一表示:“物价上涨,但收入却没有明显增长,因此人们感觉连基本生活必需品都越来越难以负担。”

中野浩一指出,除了物价上涨之外,“在老龄化社会中,随着支出增加,税收和社会保障缴款也随之增加”,这给家庭带来了越来越大的压力。

然而,鉴于近期债券市场出现裂痕以及日元走软,高市洋之扩大其政策授权范围引发了投资者对日本财政状况的担忧。

日本央行在去年12月加息后,将基准利率维持在0.75%的30年高位,并表示将逐步收紧货币政策。

此次选举将澄清近期政治领域的一些不确定性,但仍会引发人们对国家债务和支出走向的担忧。食品价格措施将安抚消费者,但这只是短期缓解,对整体经济的贡献甚微。

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