差價合約是複雜的金融交易產品,可帶來由槓桿作用而導致迅速虧損的高風險。 大部分的零售投資者帳戶在跟交易差價合約時錄得資金虧損。您應當考慮您是否充分明白差價合約如何運作,以及您是否能承受您的資金損失的高風險。

歐元區通膨達到目標,歐元兌美元趨穩

歐元兌美元在小幅攀升至1.15之後,持平於1.1476。聯準會維持利率不變,中東緊張局勢和川普的言論提振了美元,限制了歐元的上漲。

聯準會將利率維持在4.25%-4.50%的水平,認為經濟成長穩健,就業情勢強勁。他們將繼續減持美國國債並監控風險。官員下調了GDP,幾乎沒有改變失業率,並預期通貨膨脹率會略微上升。預計到年底將有兩次降息。同時,川普總統表示願意與伊朗會面,聯準會主席鮑威爾保持中立立場,準備應對外部衝擊。

歐元區通膨率在5月達到了歐洲央行的目標。然而,像馬裡奧·森特諾和法比奧·帕內塔這樣的歐洲央行官員認為歐盟經濟的脆弱性是一個更大的擔憂,暗示與2%的通膨目標不一致。這可能導致歐洲央行進一步降息,儘管多數官員傾向於暫停寬鬆政策。

由於聯準會似乎準備兩次降息,歐元兌美元下跌

由於川普為伊朗談判打開了大門,聯準會主席鮑威爾暗示利率將保持穩定,歐元兌美元擴大了跌幅。鮑威爾表示,關稅將給經濟活動帶來壓力,並推高通膨,但在勞動市場強勁和通膨下降的情況下,穩定的利率是適當的。美國首次申請失業救濟人數增加24.5萬人,與預期相符,而持續申請失業救濟人數下降。 5月樓市降溫,房屋開工較上月下降9.8%,建築許可較上月下降2%。歐盟5月HICP年增1.9%,低於4月的2.2%,核心HICP較去年同期成長2.3%。中東衝突導致的油價上漲可能引發通膨螺旋上升,促使持鷹派立場的央行採取行動。金融市場預計歐洲央行不會在7月降息。

歐元兌美元技術展望:由於歐元跌至1.15下方,空頭聚焦1.1450

只要歐元兌美元維持在20天簡單移動平均線1.1493上方,就會維持上升趨勢。價格走勢呈現一貫的高點和低點的模式,顯示進一步升值的潛力。

為了延續看漲趨勢,該貨幣對必須果斷地突破1.15和6月17日的高點1.1578。如果該水準被突破,接下來的目標是1.16,隨後是年度高點1.1631。

相反,日收盤價低於1.15可能會促使該貨幣對測試1.1450。隨後的關鍵支撐位是20日移動均線1.1419,然後是1.14。

eurusd chart

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