差價合約是複雜的金融交易產品,可帶來由槓桿作用而導致迅速虧損的高風險。 大部分的零售投資者帳戶在跟交易差價合約時錄得資金虧損。您應當考慮您是否充分明白差價合約如何運作,以及您是否能承受您的資金損失的高風險。

本週交易重點:通膨與成長數據密集出爐,兩大央行紀要升息訊號增強?

本周全球金融市場將迎來一系列關鍵經濟數據的集中發布-從日本GDP到英國CPI.這些數據不僅將驗證各國經濟韌性,更可能為當前波動的外匯、美股與商品市場指引短期方向。

週二

日本第一季GDP初值:預估GDP平減指數年率初值3.1%(前值3.4%)。聚焦內需(消費+資本支出)能否抵銷出口疲軟、實質薪資連續下滑是否拖累私人消費。若超預期成長:日圓短線獲得支撐,日經225可能先漲後跌(擔憂貨幣政策正常化加速)。

英國4月失業率:預期失業率維持在4.9%附近,失業金申請人數小幅增加。關注雇主國民保險稅率上調後的就業市場反應以及實際薪資增速能否繼續跑贏通膨。如果失業率低於預期:英鎊短線走強,英國央行升息預期或升溫。

澳洲聯邦儲備銀行會議紀要:澳洲央行在5月會議上再度升息,政策聲明措辭偏鷹,若紀要顯示升息討論活躍,澳元將獲得支撐。但如果連續升息後轉為觀望,強調視接下來數據而定,則可能削弱澳元的動能。

週三:

英國4月CPI:預期整體CPI年增幅約3.2%。聚焦服務業通膨是否頑固(該指標是英國央行最關注的變數)以及能源價格回落對整體通膨的傳導效果,如果通膨超預期,英國央行上半年升息預期將進一步增強。

歐元區4月CPI終值:預期與初值一致-整體CPI年比3%,核心CPI年比2.2%,均接近歐洲央行目標。關注服務業通膨是否仍堅挺。

英偉達2027財年第一季財報:市場預期營收約786億美元,聚焦於資料中心營收、Blackwell需求能否超預期上行。重點留意英偉達過去12季中有9個季度營收超出共識預期超過10億美元,市場已習慣「碾壓式」超預期,任何「僅僅符合預期」的表現都可能被解讀為利空,將會影響科技股以及整個美股市場的走向。

週四:

聯準會會議紀要

先前聯準會維持利率不變,但會後公佈的CPI和PPI數據顯示物價壓力進一步升溫。目前芝商所FedWatch工具顯示,市場定價12月升息25個基點的機率已升至30%以上。聚焦最新的紀要是否承認通膨進展停滯或反彈風險,將直接影響市場對利率路徑的定價。委員會內部對「下一步是降息還是升息」已經出現明顯分歧,若有委員討論升息必要性,將被市場解讀為鷹派信號。

澳洲4月失業率:預期失業率維持在4.3%,就業人口新增約2萬人。關注澳洲聯邦儲備銀行升息後的就業市場韌性,分項部分關注全職與兼職就業結構變化。

歐元區與美國5月製造業及服務業PMI初值

這是本週最具分量的一組數據,將直接檢驗兩大經濟體進入第二季後的真實景氣程度。聚焦歐元區製造業是否觸底回升(德國仍是最大拖累)以及美國服務業能否維持擴張態勢。前值顯示美國製造業4月維持穩定;投入成本創4年新高,暗示通膨壓力加劇。

週五:

日本4月CPI:預計核心CPI年增率1.7%(前值1.8%)。關注服務價格是否開始穩定上漲(日本央行最關注的中期變數),則可能加速日央行升息的步伐。

德國第一季GDP終值:預期與初值一致,年率或錄得0.5%,看是否意外上修則可望提振歐元和德國DAX指數。

美國5月密西根大學消費者信心指數終值:預期終值維持在初值48.2,需要關註消費者對經濟、通膨和就業市場的看法是否有明顯變化。

免責聲明:本文所呈現觀點,情境推演及市場研判,僅供讀者參考與交流之用,不構成任何形式的投資建議、買賣建議或對任何金融產品的推薦

關於作者

 

Martin Lam 是 ATFX 亞太區首席分析師,在全球外匯及投資市場擁有逾 20 年的經驗。他畢業於迪肯大學(Deakin University),主修金融與經濟學,並曾在多家領先的外匯經紀公司擔任高級管理職位。

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