差價合約是複雜的金融交易產品,可帶來由槓桿作用而導致迅速虧損的高風險。 大部分的零售投資者帳戶在跟交易差價合約時錄得資金虧損。您應當考慮您是否充分明白差價合約如何運作,以及您是否能承受您的資金損失的高風險。

聯準會給提前降息的希望潑冷水

聯準會宣布最新貨幣政策後,股市受到影響。

SP 500 – Daily Chart

標準普爾500-日圖

標準普爾500指數在4900點遇到阻力,可能回落至4820點,測試先前的歷史高點。

聯準會週三表示,將維持基準利率在目前水準不變,主要原因是消費者信心增強和通膨率下降。 在最新聲明公佈前幾天,一些聯準會官員一直在暗示,目前的利率足以拉低通膨。 同時,市場加大了對聯準會提前降息的押注。

去年12月,12個月CPI為3.3%,接近聯準會2%的目標,月變動不大。 聯準會偏好的通膨指標個人消費支出物價指數甚至更低,為2.6%。

聯準會理事沃勒在本月的演講中表示,通膨放緩,加上就業持續成長,創造了一種「幾乎是最好的」經濟格局。

他說:“我注意到通貨膨脹的進展,加上手頭的經濟和金融狀況數據,以及我的前景,使我比自2021年以來更有信心,通貨膨脹將走向2%。”

聯準會主席鮑威爾表示:「我認為,到3月份會議時,委員會不太可能達到降息的信心水平。」但他確實表示很可能在今年。

然而,交易員們仍然認為,經濟仍然強勁,預計3月的首次降息機率為61.5%,但低於一個月前的73%。 3月將是聯準會在俄烏戰爭爆發時開始升息以來的兩年。 一些分析人士仍在確定聯準會是否會採取行動。

“我們認為市場對聯準會將在3月降息過於樂觀,” Vanguard首席全球分析師Joe Davis表示。

“可能要到年中,政策制定者才會有信心,認為他們已經充分抑制了通膨,可以開始下調短期利率目標。”

目前,由於人工智慧預期已經降溫,降息預期也在放緩,交易員應該尋找股市可能出現的回檔。

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