差價合約是複雜的金融交易產品,可帶來由槓桿作用而導致迅速虧損的高風險。 大部分的零售投資者帳戶在跟交易差價合約時錄得資金虧損。您應當考慮您是否充分明白差價合約如何運作,以及您是否能承受您的資金損失的高風險。

聯儲無明確加息路線 美匯曾低見97.72

上週聯儲局議息最終揭開四年首次加息的序幕,結果符合市場預期外也是局方一直透露的加息時間起點。鮑威爾在會後表示,現時局方沒有明確的加息路線圖,要視乎經濟步伐,有需要時可繼續收緊政策,為未來貨幣政策提供彈性。

 

內容上鮑威爾沒有清楚說明加息時間表和目標上限,投資者感到失望,美元從99水平回落至98水平更曾經低見97.72。聯儲局沒有提供強烈收緊貨幣政策信號,投資者只好觀望下一次通脹和經濟數據表現,從中尋找下一次議息取向引領美元。本周迎來美國首領失業金人數,3月PMI和消費者情緒指數,值得關注。

 

英鎊延伸目標看1.3267

美元兌日圓連續兩週上升,終突破119大關創五年半高位。主要受美元和日圓息差拉濶和日本央行保持超寬貨幣政策有關,從基本面看,日本經濟增長和通脹落後於歐美,而且日本變種病毒持續高企,阻礙經濟增長,央行續保留超寬鬆貨幣政策支撐經濟發展,間接左右日圓上升空間。若烏俄關係變得更加激烈,俄國債務違約風險上升令環球股市暴跌,資金或可能流向日圓避險外,否則日圓難以期望大漲空間。技術上,美元兌日圓守住4小時圖的10和20線118.82及118.62,將上望120.15或120.63。相反,若突破支持或下探10日線約117.27。

英鎊方面,市場關注週三公佈的二月CPl和PPl。同日當晚英國央行行長就週年預算發表講話,內容會涉及貨幣政策取向,或會影響英鎊匯率。技術上,英鎊兌美元突破10日線1.3096後重上一周高位1.3193。若英鎊延伸升勢,下一個目標看20日線1.3267。假如烏俄和談取得建設性成果,緩和避險情緒,歐洲貨幣有望衝高,英鎊兌美元或上試10和20週線1.3400附近。

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