差價合約是複雜的金融交易產品,可帶來由槓桿作用而導致迅速虧損的高風險。 大部分的零售投資者帳戶在跟交易差價合約時錄得資金虧損。您應當考慮您是否充分明白差價合約如何運作,以及您是否能承受您的資金損失的高風險。

觀望央行議息,日圓再作部署

全球能源價格高企,另俄烏戰事使歐洲供應鏈繼疫情後再度緊張引發資源及糧食價格上漲,相信短期內難以令高企通脹問題降溫。繼上周歐羅區公布三月CPI通脹數據終值後,緊接本周公布四月CPI通脹數據初值。市場預測歐羅區四月通脹,年率初值為7.5%,較上月7.4%微升,最終結果值得關注。

 

歐羅有望再展升浪

上周歐洲央行行長在論壇中講述,歐羅區通脹問題未來有機會受控,歐央行無意加快收緊貨幣政策。但其後有其他成員表示,央行可能最快在七月加息並保留現資產購債計劃,目的是舒緩通脹壓力。言論後,歐羅兌美元曾一度拉升見1.09水平,其後因美國聯儲局主席鮑威爾的強「鷹」言論限制歐羅兌美元進一步升幅,並打壓至1.08邊緣。

技術上, 近期歐羅兌美元在1.07至1.09水平徘徊,雖整體趨勢仍是下行走勢,但回顧周圖,歐羅兌美元由2018年初開始下行,直至2020年第二季跌至1.0660後結束。近期跌浪則自2021年初開始到目前仍在尋底,若這一浪再次在1.06水平結束後重新反彈,將有望展開升浪,而關鍵是歐洲央行貨幣政策需轉趨積極,開始收緊貨幣政策,這方面值得投資者留意。

近期日圓下跌吸引市場及日本央行關注。自年初美國宣布啟動加息,美元重拾強勢使利差交易增加,日圓展開其下跌浪。近兩季七大主要央行同時因持續通脹下加息及美國積極收緊貨幣政策言論,現時多國國債收益率與日本國債收益率大幅度拉濶,推動日圓下跌。技術上,美元兌日圓突破2015年五月的125高位後,曾挑戰130關口。本周,日本央行議息,貨幣政策展望與應對日圓貶值問題受到關注,現建議先觀察日本央行指引,再作部署。

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