差價合約是複雜的金融交易產品,可帶來由槓桿作用而導致迅速虧損的高風險。 大部分的零售投資者帳戶在跟交易差價合約時錄得資金虧損。您應當考慮您是否充分明白差價合約如何運作,以及您是否能承受您的資金損失的高風險。

央行議息左右歐羅後市

市場正注視週二德國及美國公佈3月消費者物價指數CPI, 相信因3月期間國際能源價格高企, 足以令當地通脹高踞不下, 還有俄烏戰事引發農產品及工業用金屬原材料價格上漲等問題, 使通脹水平可能再創有史以來新高。值得留意隨後, 政策官員對通脹問題的最新觀點或引發債股及匯市波動。

 

由於週四晚是歐洲央行議息結果宣布, 德國CPI表現可能直接影響歐央行對未來貨幣政策觀點修訂, 或有機會把由原先計劃在年底前加息展望, 推前至今年三季內或之前發生。

 

倘收水利歐羅反彈

另外, 根據歐洲央行貨幣政策, 3月份結束抗疫援助買債計劃(PEPP)後將會檢討資產買債計劃(APP)額度, 該計劃是否將開始縮減是這次歐洲央行議息會議重點其中之一。面對歐洲經濟緩慢增長但同時處於高通脹期間, 市場最關心央行決策官員如何應對和往後部署。

 

假如, 央行落實收緊貨幣政策及縮減買債, 可能讓近期低迷的歐羅短期作出反彈。技術上, 歐羅兌美元1.08關口可視為短期重要支持位, 若反彈將留意1.11或1.12範圍。週三英國公佈3月CPI, 市場正留意通脹水平會否突破歷史高位, 刺激英鎊同時間接利好歐羅匯率。

 

面對全球高通脹形勢, 週三新西蘭和加拿大央行宣布議息結果。市場預期, 兩國議息將會加息。預期新西蘭聯儲銀行將加息25基點至1.25%, 加拿大央行預期加息50基點至1.0%。若兩國央行加息幅度較預期高, 可能觸發匯率上升。

 

相反, 加息幅度僅符合預期或沒有如預期加息將影響匯率下調。議息後, 留意央行決策者對未來政策展望, 相信會間接影響匯率未來走向。

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