差價合約是複雜的金融交易產品,可帶來由槓桿作用而導致迅速虧損的高風險。 大部分的零售投資者帳戶在跟交易差價合約時錄得資金虧損。您應當考慮您是否充分明白差價合約如何運作,以及您是否能承受您的資金損失的高風險。

英央行決議陷入兩難,經濟低迷或限制升息步伐

又一重磅會議英國央行利率決議今晚將舉行,市場調查顯示,英國央行在本次決議中可能將史無前例地連續第五次進行加息,從1%上調至1.25%。 和美國一樣,英國的通脹水準也在不斷飆升,英國4月份通貨膨脹率大幅上升,同比飆升至9% ,達到40年高位,市場對於該項數值是否已經達到峰值的觀點不一。

令英國央行為難的是英國4月GDP數據並不樂觀,經濟環比意外收縮0.3%,而預期為略微擴張0.1%,低迷的經濟限制了英國央行加息的幅度,如何有效平抑飆升的通脹又不加劇經濟的衰退成為了英央行當前的最大難題。 因此處於英國國內經濟情況的考慮,市場預計多數官員將支援加息25個基點,這一加息的幅度相比此前升息50個基點較為溫和。

至於加息對英磅的影響,市場目前對英磅未來的走向看跌的聲音較多。 一方面,英國經濟數據疲軟限制了英國央行實行更加激進的加息政策抑制通脹,美國方面宣佈加息75個基點,市場上出現更加激進的加息預期,不過鮑威爾隨即稱加息75個基點不是常見做法,一定程度限制了美元漲幅,但難改英鎊承壓的預期,英鎊兌美元仍有繼續跌破1.20的風險。

另一方面,英國通脹正經歷難以抑制的局面,加息幅度雖然受限但是預計還將繼續。 經濟學家認為英央行可能在8月和11月加息,並可能在2023年5月再次宣佈加息,預計央行將在明年這個時候將基準借貸利率提高至2%,這也加劇了市場對英國經濟正陷入衰退的擔憂,令英磅的前景不明朗。 但是,最終英磅的走向還是要重點關注本周英央行的加息決定,及其對未來加息幅度的立場與態度是否有所轉變。

市場同時在密切關注英國單方面要求重寫《北愛爾蘭協定》的立法草案,《北愛爾蘭協定》是英國退歐後貿易協定的一部分,在此協定下,英國脫歐后北愛爾蘭依然能留在歐盟的單一市場。 但是從英國進入北愛爾蘭的特定商品需要接受常規的海關檢查,以便保留歐盟單一市場的完整性,而英國方面希望減少這一系列的海關檢查,但是遭到了歐盟的強烈反對。

如果英國方面執意撕毀協定,有可能會引發英國和歐盟之間的緊張局勢升級,加劇了未來英國和歐盟之間貿易戰的風險,對於英鎊的走勢也將是一個不利因素。

從目前的情況看,英國經濟的增長前景受到多重挑戰,持續上升的通脹主要由於能源價格的飆升,英國國家統計局表示,能源價格上調導致4月天然氣和電力的平均價格同比分別上漲了53.5% 和95.5%。 若歐洲對俄羅斯能源供應實施全面禁運,英國的通脹的水準很可能將在高位持續,高昂的生產成本最終將轉嫁給消費者。

通貨膨脹飆升、工作力短缺、加息幅度受限等等棘手的問題正在考驗著英國當局,而未來能源價格是否會再次走高對於英國經濟前景來說至關重要。

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